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Wrong Initial Move?

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  • Wrong Initial Move?

    maybe that raise i made initially was wrong and would have been better to push it right away this happened at a sitngo
    Last edited by D H Q; Mon Dec 12, 2011, 08:13 AM.

  • #2
    I like the way you played it. Standard raise amount (to help keep the opp guessing on the type of hand that you have). It's also an easy call to a short-stack that shoves over you.

    Most of the time the opp will have 2 over cards and you're in a race, this one, you're even better off, as the opp has a smaller pair.

    You were an 81.6% favorite when the chips went in... and unfortunately hit one of the other 18%.

    The opp with 77 isn't folding if you shove. Actually, if you shove and button calls, it makes it an EASIER call for either of the blinds, if they want to take a chance due to their being more chips in the pot.
    Say, for example one of the blinds has any 2 broadway cards (A K Q J or 10)... if you shove, the button calls and they call, then your hand equity goes from 81.6% down to about 44% (means that you go from being a 4-1 favorite to a hand that will lose more than it wins).

    You're much better off in the situation that you had.

    6 Time Bracelet Winner


    • #3
      When you have better than a 50% chance of winning, you get unlucky, and you lose, it's hard to think of it any other way than as a loss, but in reality you're winning. You're only really losing when you make bad plays and consistently end up with less than a 50% chance of winning.

      When two pocket pairs go against each other preflop, the lower pocketpair has about a 20% chance to win, and the higher pair has about an 80% chance to win. You had the higher pair, so your opponent just got lucky this time. Your opponent went all-in with a worse hand than yours here, so he did exactly what you should want him too. You didn't make a mistake. Don't try and make him fold when he has the worse hand.

      Hope the next one works out better.


      • #4
        thank you very very much for your help J makes me feel a lot better


        • #5
          this reinforce my confidence Panick thank you for taking the time to analize my hand


          • #6

            Be honest with yourself. The ONLY reason you're even posting this hand is because the villain hit a lucky runner runner suck on you. I truly hope that you're not questioning your play here because you played this fine.

            Are you standard raising 3-betting every time to open? Then do NOT deviate from that until/unless you are short enough versus the blinds to be on a push/fold stack. And then later in the tourney dial down the opening raise a little maybe. But you don't want to be betting more to open with your bigger hands as that's exploitable. At 16BB and with 2 or the 3 stacks to act behind you being basically half of yours I don't see you as being on a push/fold stack just yet.

            What if you HAD shoved here? Do you see it playing out any different? I can't think that the guy on 8BB is ever folding his pocket 7's to your shove,not when he's willing to ship them after a raise of 35% of his stack just went into the middle and he ships over the top.

            Your play here is fine,just UL.


            • #7
              well moxie you got it, I think i played it ok and when I've a good stack i go better for that kind of raises specially on that position... but what i was questioning was the value i was putting to my hand with three players ahead...but now that i find the explanations is giving me great confidence

              it was good to vent as well



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