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Is this the right play?

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  • Is this the right play?

    Is this the correct fold with an all-in I sensed category 1 hand but in hinesight would of won a good pot?

    PokerStars Game #64554263316: Tournament #429010394, $20+$2 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level VI (40/80) - 2011/07/14 18:01:58 WET [2011/07/14 13:01:58 ET]
    Table '429010394 75' 9-max Seat #5 is the button
    Seat 1: zorik14 (1649 in chips)
    Seat 2: zaazy17 (1767 in chips)
    Seat 3: torente1969 (4735 in chips)
    Seat 4: Pene2 (3000 in chips)
    Seat 5: eucarionte (2935 in chips)
    Seat 6: Azaruna (8911 in chips)
    Seat 7: hidaalgo (5021 in chips)
    Seat 8: salsa886 (2650 in chips)
    Seat 9: jwc44 (6475 in chips)
    zorik14: posts the ante 10
    zaazy17: posts the ante 10
    torente1969: posts the ante 10
    Pene2: posts the ante 10
    eucarionte: posts the ante 10
    Azaruna: posts the ante 10
    hidaalgo: posts the ante 10
    salsa886: posts the ante 10
    jwc44: posts the ante 10
    Azaruna: posts small blind 40
    hidaalgo: posts big blind 80
    *** HOLE CARDS ***
    Dealt to Azaruna [Kc Ad]
    salsa886: folds
    jwc44: raises 120 to 200
    zorik14: folds
    zaazy17: raises 1557 to 1757 and is all-in
    torente1969: folds
    Pene2: folds
    eucarionte is disconnected
    eucarionte has timed out while disconnected
    eucarionte: folds
    eucarionte is sitting out
    Azaruna: calls 1717
    hidaalgo has timed out
    hidaalgo: folds
    hidaalgo is sitting out
    jwc44: raises 4708 to 6465 and is all-in
    Azaruna: folds
    Uncalled bet (4708) returned to jwc44
    *** FLOP *** [9c 6h Ks]
    *** TURN *** [9c 6h Ks] [5s]
    *** RIVER *** [9c 6h Ks 5s] [4c]
    *** SHOW DOWN ***
    jwc44: shows [Qd Qs] (a pair of Queens)
    zaazy17: shows [Ac Kd] (a pair of Kings)
    zaazy17 collected 5441 from pot
    *** SUMMARY ***
    Total pot 5441 | Rake 0
    Board [9c 6h Ks 5s 4c]
    Seat 1: zorik14 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
    Seat 2: zaazy17 showed [Ac Kd] and won (5441) with a pair of Kings
    Seat 3: torente1969 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
    Seat 4: Pene2 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
    Seat 5: eucarionte (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
    Seat 6: Azaruna (small blind) folded before Flop
    Seat 7: hidaalgo (big blind) folded before Flop
    Seat 8: salsa886 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
    Seat 9: jwc44 showed [Qd Qs] and lost with a pair of Queens
    Last edited by Azaruna; Thu Jul 14, 2011, 08:20 PM.

  • #2
    yes, you would have gotten lucky, but playing a push like this early without a made hand is a long-term losing proposition.

    You made the right play by folding, as you were way behind and only had 4 outs (16% hand equity)... and even then, basically the best you could do is to chop the pot, not win it outright.
    Super-Moderator



    6 Time Bracelet Winner


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    • #3
      Since AK has, at worst, roughly 50% equity against any other hand weaker than KK, but only if it sees the flop, turn and river (meaning that it's often best to play it by getting all-in preflop), I think it's awkward to call a raise, then fold it preflop. I think that raising youself is the better play, or calling with the intent to call future raises. In a 3-way all-in, you can land in tricky spots where AK is way behind QQ because two of your outs are gone, and you're only drawing to a chop, but that's something you have to put up with sometimes.

      Someone might have a better analysis than me on this. It's a pretty basic spot, but it's still tricky, I think.

      @JKW- I think that your analysis is approaching the spot from the wrong direction, since we can't see villain hole cards in reality; some villains could be pushing AQ and AQ here. Maybe. It's hard to say what they're shoving without any reads at all.
      Last edited by PanickyPoker; Thu Jul 14, 2011, 09:22 PM.

      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by PanickyPoker View Post
        @JKW- I think that your analysis is approaching the spot from the wrong direction, since we can't see villain hole cards in reality; some villains could be pushing AQ and AQ here. Maybe. It's hard to say what they're shoving without any reads at all.
        Reads would make a ton of difference here, but it's a decent buy-in (should lower the fishiness a bit... which is a big assumption). I'd be more likely to put the opp on a real hand shoving early due to that. Yes, they could be doing it with AQ, especially AQs... but most likely will be some sort of pocket pair (and whether it's 2's or Q's... you're still in the same situation).
        Super-Moderator



        6 Time Bracelet Winner


        Comment


        • #5
          That's fair, but if both opps have lower pairs, then you're so far ahead it's ridiculous. There are a lot of combos of possible 3-way holdings, and you're only afraid of two: [AK vs. AK and non AK]; and [AK vs. KK+ and xx]. You're good to call anything else, which includes [AK vs. Ax and Ax], [AK vs. pair and pair], and other types of matchups.

          It's a ranging and equity problem, and I don't think it's a simple as saying, "You're probably behind, so fold."
          Last edited by PanickyPoker; Thu Jul 14, 2011, 09:41 PM.

          Comment


          • #6
            wow whats with cold calling his all in there?? why not shove over the top ? you lose all your equity once villain shoves over the top of you, and if so i think its still a call AK this early in a tournament........

            Really wierd ahwell blehh

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by Oku_Ha_FooLs View Post
              wow whats with cold calling his all in there?? why not shove over the top ? you lose all your equity once villain shoves over the top of you, and if so i think its still a call AK this early in a tournament........

              Really wierd ahwell blehh
              Well I personally would not normally risk my tournament status early on with any pre-flops all ins as its just a lottery. Much prefer to see the cards on the table and know that I have the best hand available or a very stong one to play.

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