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AKo Wierd spot

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  • AKo Wierd spot

    This was a position I wasn't sure about in the 'Road to a million' EN tourney last night.

    I'm 2nd to act with 45 BBs and UTG opens all-in with 35 BB and I'm looking at AKo. UTG has not made any previous moves like this.

    I folded was that right.

  • #2
    DrIbbo

    Where are we in the tourney and how many get tickets? If we're nowhere near the tickets, I can't fault either a fold nor call and would lean toward a fold against a tighter opp and call more often against a loose opp.

    To determine for sure, we need more info.

    John (JWK24)
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    6 Time Bracelet Winner




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    • #3
      I think he is capped at this point (if he never do that before,then suddenly he probably won't do it with AA KK or something like that). So he has probably something which he unlikely want to play postflop,but strong enough to just play with it. I guess his range is mostly middle pocket pairs like 77-QQ,and some Ax like ATs+ and AJo+

      Vs this range you have more than 50%,so in cEV it will be good. If it was close to the tickets,then i'm folding it.
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      • #4
        Taurus221

        They're not capped (I see players do this with premiums all the time), but they are totally polarized to a monster or a hand they don't really want to play postflop.

        John (JWK24)
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        6 Time Bracelet Winner




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        • #5
          Taurus221 JWK24 It was a 30 get paid satellite but I think we were only an hour or so in and not near the money

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          • #6
            That far from the $$, I'm leaning towards calling.

            John (JWK24)
            Super-Moderator



            6 Time Bracelet Winner




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            • #7
              JWK24 I think I've been getting it wrong. I thought early in a tournament I wanted to avoid spots where I couldn't be sure I was ahead or not. I guessed in this case like you his range would be polarised leaning towards big pairs. Wouldn't I be risking my tournament life here on a bit of a gamble by calling.

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              • #8
                DrIbbo

                We block the big pairs and need to be taking shots to accumulate chips, to try and get the ticket. If we were deeper, then I'd lean toward passing on this, but 35bb, I'm inclined to take a shot. Their range is polarized, but more often, these will be hands the opp doesn't want to see a flop with... at least on what I see when playing (a lot of their range will be 44-99 and aces that could be dominated (especially suited ones).

                John (JWK24)

                Super-Moderator



                6 Time Bracelet Winner




                Online Poker League
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                • #9
                  JWK24 OK thanks, I'll make some adjustments to my play. i should probably brush up on my tournament strategies again.

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                  • #10
                    I'm folding in that spot 100% of the times and here are the reasons why:
                    -in a tournament that pays only tickets the main goal is to survive until you get into the tickets,meaning you have to play as conservative as possible because you should just let the others bust out and let yourself get closer to the tickets;
                    -you have mentioned you haven't seen that guy doing that before,well the range I would put him on is 1010+,AQo+,maybe AJs and 99;now let's look how is AKo doing against this range:you are dominating (remember dominate doesn't mean you are 100% sure to win,you just have a huge chance of winning against a hand) all his AQ combinations - 16 hands ,MAYBE AJs combinations - 4 hands (if he ever open shoves with that),you are flipping with all the 1010/JJ/QQ - 6x4=24 combinations,MAYBE 99 - another 6 combinations,you are splitting with all the other AKo combinations left (5 combinations),you are freerolled by all the AKs combinations (2 combinations) and you are dominated by KK/AA - 6 combinations (as you are blocking some with your AKo;as a conclusion you are beating most of the times 16 (+4) hands,you are flipping with 24 (+6) hands,you are splitting with 5 hands, you are getting freerolled by 2 hands and you are beaten most of the times by 6 combinations; (SORRY IF I MISS CALCULATED) the hands you are dominating can still beat you (trust me and it hurts);there is no reason to flip in a spot like that as you have 45 BBs and that guy has 35BBs,if you would have flipped and won you would have had 80BBs-82BBs (counting the BB,SB and the ante),indeed a big stack but even with that big stack you are not guaranteed to win the tournament and if you would have lost the flip,then you would have lost a huge stack with a huge potential of getting into the tickets,so flipping in that spot is not good for you;splitting it's also a bad thing as you can both make different flushes with 1 hole card and 4 community cards,I know it's a small chance that would happen but still you are only sharing the BB,SB and the ante if you split,so the risk-reward ratio is not good;if you would have called and he would have had AKs you would have been freerolled,meaning that guy had nothing to lose,your only way to win is to make a flush with 1 hole card and 4 community cards while he can make a flush with 2 hole cards and 3 community cards;when you are dominated well you have something like 20% chance or less to win.
                    In conclusion that is definitely a fold as the risk-win ratio is not balanced.

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                    • #11
                      STARSC27 Yes I decided it was mostly just flipping. ProPokerTools says I'm a 55/45 dog against top 5% and 57/43 good against top 10%. The question is really with my stack size at 45BB, Do I have time to wait for a better spot?

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                      • #12
                        Definitely,because the blinds levels were increasing every 8 minutes and by the time a 45BBs stack would have become a 20BBs stack or lower (a stack that forces you to play all-in/fold) you already would have played a lot of hands that could have influenced your stack (increase/decrease your stack),depending on how you would have played the respective hands.Furthermore,I guarantee that at least 95% of the players in that tournament are rookies,meaning they are doing a lot of mistakes and that the field (the number of remaining players) is getting narrower really fast.So you just have to play as conservative as possible and just wait for the rookies to bust.What I am trying to say is that you can't win the tournament in the early/mid stages but you can lose it and you must survive as much as possible in order to make it to the tickets.And one more thing,that is not such a good spot because you are flipping with that guy if you are the only ones involved in the hand.You said you were UTG+1,which is an early position,which means you have a lot of players to act behind.The more players you have to act behind,the bigger the probability that they might get involved in the hand as well,especially with those rookies that might call with 65s for example.What I am trying to say is that it could have been,for example,a 3 way all-in,or 4 way,etc;and the more players involved in that the less equity you had.So that was definitely a fold.And in case you might ask:"What if I was in the BB?",I would have still folded because you can see above why .

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