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Call all in or not?

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  • Call all in or not?

    Hi all,

    this question is meant to know if I should or should not, long term, call the all in in this example.

    for this hand, table position and other details are not relevant. it's pure a question of "long term profitability to call or not".

    It's the beginning of a satellite and I decide to play JT off suit. It's a 4 handed game.
    the flop gives 9 8 2 rainbow, giving me an open ended straight draw and 2 over cards.
    I check and villain on my left goes all in. our stacks are equally big.
    having 14 outs (56% to improve by the river), is it long term profitable to call here or not?
    Should I think long term, or should I think "survival in the satellite"?

    Thanks for your reactions!

  • #2
    I forgot to mention that many people in this satellite are going all in with the most ridiculous hands, like having 1 over card etc.

    Comment


    • #3
      The situation matters. Without we knowing the pot odds here,we don't know how much EV you get with the call. But if he jams the starting stack i assume somewhere around 45-47% could be the pot odds,which is pretty high comparing to your equity.

      Vs his range you don't have 56%,so this is a wrong thinking. If you want to calculate the long term,you always think here in ranges. Your real equity is somewhere between 35-45% in this situation without knowing any info about your opponent.

      So i guess your call here would be -cEV. But it would be easier if we can see the whole situation better. So if you can share the hand history of this party,that would help a lot to answering to your questions.
      My backstory: https://www.pokerstarsschool.com/for...old-new-member

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      • #4
        GSMTH

        how many chips do we have? how many are in the pot already? are there others in the hand? what were the bets preflop?

        we need to know all of this information to run the math to see if it is a play or not.. and ALL of these decisions are totally math based. If the math says it's a positive play, then we call. If the math says we expect to lose chips, we fold.

        We most likely have 8 outs, not 14... the opp can have an overpair or set easily here.

        When looking to see if a play is right or not, we need to have all of the information for this specific situation and every single spot is different.. you can't make generalizations on things like this or you'll basically always be wrong.

        John (JWK24)
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        • #5
          As I said, many players in these free satellites (re-buy for 1 cent), including villain, are going all in pre flop with a very wide range of hands, even stuff like 85 unsuited.
          On the flop, they will often go all in with just 1 over card and some illucit draw.
          therefore, I do not believe I should take anything of the outs I theoretically have, which is 14.

          I was UTG +2 and villain was immediately to my left. UTG and UTG+1 folded. I went in for 3bb and he called. there was 1 or 2 other callers behind him.
          Stacks were identical, about 20 big blinds

          these satellites are hyper turbo, so you don't have the time to do long calculations.

          Comment


          • #6
            Taurus221
            ok, the pot odds: I must admit, I lost sight of those in this specific hand. I had gotten a little irritated because of all these idiots going all in all of the time.
            since there were only about 10-12bb in the pot, I should not have called a 15-ish bb shove. that's clear to me now.
            but in the case pot odds would be 2/1 and 14 outs, would you advise for systematically calling?

            by the way, where do you get these graphs in your backstory? any specific (free?) poker software you can advise?

            I really want to try to go professional, so I could also use some advice on poker software that could help me.


            Comment


            • #7
              JWK24
              I'm having a little trouble with some of the abbreviations you guys use. Could you explain them for me?
              HRC
              ICM

              Comment


              • #8
                ICM = independent chip model (it determines whether we expect to win or lose money in a tournament from a play (may or may not apply here... since we don't know the exact situation (stacks, bets, players left, etc. we can't say).

                HRC = holdem resources calculator... an advanced tool that can give us the correct ranges to play for a situation, based on chip EV or ICM.

                Once again, you cannot generalize spots, you need exact numbers to run the math.

                I can say this though, if you only had 3 bb's.. it's correct and the opps expect to gain from you, no matter what cards you have, nor what cards the opp has. The opp should call with literally 2 wet bar napkins.. and expects to profit from you.. as you're too short.

                To run the numbers, we need exact stacks, exactly what's in the pot already, exactly what bets, etc. And pot sizes are not in terms of big blinds,
                Also, stop with the 14 outs here.. that is basically NEVER true. it's 8 outs for an open-ended straight... but to know whether it's a call or not, we need the exact stacks and pot size.

                Also, these tools are for running after playing (when reviewing), they are against the TOS to have open when the PS client is open.

                The easiest way to get the stack sizes, bets, etc.. is to get the hand history from the hand and post it in here. If even one number is even slightly off, the results can be a huge difference.

                John (JWK24)
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                • #9
                  The reason that I say that we cannot use 14 outs... yes, we may have 14 against some opps.. and against some others, we are in reality at less than even 8 outs (if the opp has a set and the board pairs, even if we hit our straight, we still lose.

                  In these spots, it's best to use 8 outs.
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                  • #10
                    JWK24

                    thanks for the explanation John.
                    unfortunately, I can't get the hands from that specific satellite.
                    it was on 888 poker and I don't remember the name of that specific satellite since they have so many.

                    I really need to make some work about having all my hand histories available though.
                    can you advise any software that can take care of all of these things? (incl. ICM and HRC)
                    I'm not very technical so it's gonna take me some time to really get the hang of these things, but I'm starting to get the feeling that in today's poker, they are a necessity.
                    (I'm a little old fashioned in these things :-))

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by GSMTH View Post
                      since there were only about 10-12bb in the pot, I should not have called a 15-ish bb shove. that's clear to me now.
                      but in the case pot odds would be 2/1 and * ̶1̶4̶ ̶o̶u̶t̶s, would you advise for systematically calling?
                      If it was 2:1 then it means 33%. You have this if he can shove the high kickered (T+) 9x which is questionable,2 pair (probably just a 98) and sets 22,88,99. Without info and seeing it was a freeroll,i'm inclined to call it.

                      Originally posted by GSMTH View Post
                      by the way, where do you get these graphs in your backstory?
                      From Pokertracker 4. It's a tracker program,where i can see my and the other player stats in real time. Also i can see my graphs,so i can see exactly how i'm coping on specific limit.

                      Originally posted by GSMTH View Post
                      any specific (free?) poker software you can advise?
                      The only free poker software i'm using is the equilab. It's a great tool to see how much equity to have a specific hand or ranges vs a hand or ranges. That's where i calculated your hand,and get the results.




                      * You have to take every time the worst case scenarios,not just the best case scenarios. So as i said before,you don't have 14 outs. Vs set you don't have 14 out,vs 2 pair you don't have 14 out,vs hands like J9 T9 you don't have 14 out. And these hands are still part of his range.
                      My backstory: https://www.pokerstarsschool.com/for...old-new-member

                      My diary: https://www.pokerstarsschool.com/for...3-diary-of-tau

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                      • #12
                        Yeah. I use pokertracker4 for my hands when I play too. You need to go into the poker client for each site and make sure that you are saving the hand histories to your computer when playing. PT4 is NOT free, but it will pay for itself over and over and over, with being able to fix leaks in your game when reviewing the hands.

                        I agree with Taurus on the number of outs.. we want to look at the worst case situations, not what our best case ones will be.

                        John (JWK24)
                        Super-Moderator



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                        • #13
                          Originally posted by GSMTH View Post
                          I was UTG +2 and villain was immediately to my left. UTG and UTG+1 folded. I went in for 3bb and he called. there was 1 or 2 other callers behind him.
                          Stacks were identical, about 20 big blinds

                          these satellites are hyper turbo, so you don't have the time to do long calculations.
                          If you started with 20bb and flopped 2 overs+open ender, I would continuation bet the flop (and call a jam). Not sure why you checked the flop, but in a hyper with 20bb stacks vs. a field that is going all in with a wide array of junk, I would never consider folding this much equity. No math necessary for such a spot imo.

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                          • #14
                            Originally posted by TheLangolier View Post

                            If you started with 20bb and flopped 2 overs+open ender, I would continuation bet the flop (and call a jam). Not sure why you checked the flop, but in a hyper with 20bb stacks vs. a field that is going all in with a wide array of junk, I would never consider folding this much equity. No math necessary for such a spot imo.
                            Dave is right. Furthermore - seeing that this a short-handed, 1c, hyper-turbo, rebuy flip-a-ment - it would better for you to focus on developing a strong pre-flop push/fold strategy. These types of games generally do not have you deep stacked enough to extend much 'wiggle room' for post-flop game.
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