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16NL BB free play and flop open ender river overbet

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  • 16NL BB free play and flop open ender river overbet

    Another spot that came up in my insane Sunday session. UTG is 33/0 over 212 hands. He is uniquely balanced in that he limps everything, including AA, from anywhere on the board. UTG+1 is 57/22 over 88 hands and was the OR is the other recent hand I posted. I take the free play in the BB when it limps round to me and flop an OESD on a two tone board. I lead flop as I expect to get action from at least one of the two villains and if I hit my straight draw. Turn is an Ace and brings a third spade, I check it, limps UTG are often Ax among other things so if I wasn't behind before then I expect to be now. River is an excellent card, it gives me the nut straight, and unless he has two spades then I am good. I elect to overbet the river because I think I can get called by worse hands and given his range that is a fairly wide range. then he clicks it back I'm almost certain I am good here, his range is literally any two cards on that board, and flushes. I can just call, naturally, is shoving asking for too much when there is a possible flush out there?

  • #2
    Hi bhoy,

    On the river, I am just not tracking with your assessment that you are almost certainly good here. You haven't provided any post flop stats, but for a passive villain raising such an egregious overbet on the river, I would expect them to have a flush way more often than not personally. Raising a 3x pot river bet with anything less would be surprising, since you will often have a flush here yourself going for value vs. aces up type hands.

    For me this is somewhere between a fold and crying call as played, raising again is not appealing to me.


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    • #3
      Sorry Dave, I should have given post flop reads.

      Post flop he isn't as passive as he is pre, I think his logic is that he wants to hit something before committing any more money, even if he already has something, but that's not always true either.

      At this stage already he has limped pre with AA, seen a flush board, and proceeded to raise the river.

      He has raised KK on the river on an A high board. So I think he is a button clicker who doesn't understand relative hand strength and just thinks he has KK and he should raise at some point etc,

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      • #4
        Ok well given that I think the river is a pretty easy call as opposed to a crying call or fold. While it seems clear he's willing to raise worse than a flush even vs. this large overbet, I think raising again is overly optimistic.
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        • #5
          I did think raising again was optimistic, so just called, he had AKh.

          I've plenty of notes on the guy now.

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          • #6
            Hi there! I think you are right that alot of the times you be ahead here on the river especially given the turn action. When he minraises you, I don't think you can reraise back for value. There is still a chance that he has a flush here and decided to slowplay the turn. You really have no idea with a limited sample size how he would play a flush. Calling the raise on the river would be best hoping for a spazz play or a weird value raise with like Aces up. Do keep in mind that although you think you're ahead alot even if he raises you on the river, you don't know whether he would call another raise even with a hand as strong as Aces up so often times you end up putting yourself in a situation where he gets more value from you when he has you beat or just folds now to another raise thinking he must be beat now.

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            • #7
              Originally posted by nanonoko View Post
              Hi there! I think you are right that alot of the times you be ahead here on the river especially given the turn action. When he minraises you, I don't think you can reraise back for value. There is still a chance that he has a flush here and decided to slowplay the turn. You really have no idea with a limited sample size how he would play a flush. Calling the raise on the river would be best hoping for a spazz play or a weird value raise with like Aces up. Do keep in mind that although you think you're ahead alot even if he raises you on the river, you don't know whether he would call another raise even with a hand as strong as Aces up so often times you end up putting yourself in a situation where he gets more value from you when he has you beat or just folds now to another raise thinking he must be beat now.
              Hi Randy, Thanks for stopping by. That was the instant thought that came into my head when I was actually playing the hand, but once I saw the result, and put it alongside what I had seen before, I didn't know whether raising again was just being too greedy and I think the comments from yourself and Dave confirm that it would have been too greedy on this occasion. Just trying to find value anywhere I canumbup:

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              • #8
                It's good that you're thinking about stuff like that. Keep it up and you'll be on your way to being a world class player. Good luck at the tables!

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