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NL5 AQo river decision

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  • NL5 AQo river decision

    http:// The villain is 12/10/2.7 over 43 hands, I fold the river here as so often in the past i have called and lost, if you look at my HM2 graph my winnings at showdown are a huge minus which is the reason i feel im not winning at NL5 because if you look at my red line its in slight profit, Its's clear my showdown winnings is what is really holding me back and I think this hand is a perfect reflection on why, as I would normanly call here do find out ive a worse hand and lose a stack. He has to have me beat here... I really cant put him on a hand on the turn when he raises apart from A4, his 3bet % is 17.6 so im thinking he would defiantly 3bet hands like AA-KK I plan on check calling the river as he way have a hand like KQ,QJ but he makes a massive shove and all I can think is that he has A4 or Q10, its a stange one for me I know he's a tight player or at least has been playing tight at this table, I just don't think I can call with one pair... am I right in my thinking?

  • #2
    I would play this hand differently. TPTK is not a hand we want to put a lot money in the pot with, but it's hand worth seeing the showdown with. Betting the flop was fine, but I would check-call the turn and the river, provided he doesn't bet too much. I do it to keep the pot small. If fe has a flush draw, he's calling my bet anyway and by not betting I attempt to trick my opponent into bluffing and protect myself from being raised.

    In the circumstances, folding was correct. Granted, it could be a bluff. The villain made a right play, taking advantage of his position. Nothing you can do about it.

    That's how I see it. But I'm a fish.

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    • #3
      no thats a fair enough opinion, and they can all help when similar spots come up in the future, thank you

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      • #4
        Pre and flop play are standaard.

        Your turn-bet looks oke to me, but his raise looks very strong. He looks like a very tight player so I would be very hesitant to call his raise.

        The river shove, if I would have gotten so far, would be an easy fold. He always have "it".

        (sudden) Aggression on turn and river is, on 5NL always a sign of very strong hands. Never call unless you have a nutty hand. your BR will like that.

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        • #5
          On a flop like that, you're never getting 3 streets of value from worse unless villain has KQ, which is unlikely. My plan would be to check-call either the flop or turn, and win a small pot instead of losing a big one.
          Since you're often way ahead, you should want to get to showdown, and there's not much need to "protect" your equity, because villain won't draw out on you very often, especially since you have the Ah, which means villain won't have a flush draw all that often. If you keep betting, all the junk in villain's range will fold, meaning you're usually beat if villain is still around on the river. Keep villain's range wide/weak by checking. As played, I think you need to fold to the turn raise after betting it, as villain is going to bomb about 80% of river cards and you won't be able to call.
          Bracelet Winner

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          • #6
            villain has to have 33,44,1010 i guess, he could have qq but i would expect him to 3 bet pre flop. he wont have many missed flushes as he would have bet the flop if he was going to bet and not started betting on the turn.

            if i was playing this i would be using my hud to help here as he could be bluffing with A10 K10 kj and i want to know if he is lag or tag

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            • #7
              I was using my hud and have posted his stats in my OP He seems a tight player, I dont put him on AA/KK or QQ as he would likely 3bet these hands pre, all i can be sure of is that im beat. I think he holds A4 or 10's that rivered a full house and he goes for max value from top pair

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