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10nl Cash Table-AA OOP in squeezed pot

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  • 10nl Cash Table-AA OOP in squeezed pot

    Hey guys! Me again... Thanks for all the great help so far! Here's a hand I played against a 34/28 (3bet 8%) player from 80 hands. I think I know my errors, can you confirm them? Firstly, I am happy with my play preflop. I think the sizing is okay - maybe could be a pinch larger because it is a squeezed pot and we are OOP. ~$3.50 is more optimal. On the flop his value range is probably KK (we are deep so I could see him flatting), AQ, AK, QQ, JJ, TT. I bet around halfpot because I didn't want his AK combos to fold. I think this is a mistake because they might peel a card with position anyway even if I make it around $4.50 or so. OTT I make a classic mistake of not Bet/folding... which led me to a tough decision. I could definitely see KK doing this, maybe JJ if he didn't believe I had the Q. There are 4 combos of AQ left. Easy fold for you more experienced players? Thanks once again umbup:

  • #2
    You cant b/f turn. Too much in the middle with your stack. It's basically shove or x/f imo.

    You also block AK so we shouldnt worry about making AK peel.

    I think KK shoves pre, AK folds flop, so that leaves AQ, TT. QQ for his value range. I really dont see many bluffs here.

    I think given we checked we should be folding.

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    • #3
      Cool, so what real arguments are there for shoving if those are the only cards in his value range? X/f feels kinda gross. Guess I need more discipline.

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      • #4
        There's still some hands which may call a turn shove, but won't shove themselves.

        I do prefer x/folding this spot though.

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        • #5
          Hi Swagneto,

          I agree with everything birdayy has said here. Sometimes we think laggy opponents are in there with all kinds of stuff, and hate to fold to them. It's important to remember in 4b pots the ranges will be much tighter preflop, even in the hands of a 34/28/8 guy unless he's on wild tilt.

          I did some range analytics estimating his 3B range at 8.6%, subtracting out AA-QQ/AKs as his 5b range and folding none of it to our 4b sizing on this depth of money. That gave me a rough estimate of what he got to the flop with. Then I removed hands I felt would fold to a c-bet. What that leaves us with is a range that is heavy in Qx or better, and on this turn card we are roughly a 2-1 underdog to have the best hand. And the few combos we are ahead of, which happened to be JJ/JTs, have showdown value vs. AK so are not very likely to bet the turn if we check. Therefore I think the rough range analytic backs up the notion of check/folding the turn.

          If we shove, JJ/JT might make a stubborn call, but I too agree that check/folding is the superior play here.


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          • #6
            So SPR means nothing here?
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            • #7
              Originally posted by Sle4zy_E View Post
              So SPR means nothing here?
              What do you think it should mean here?

              Having an SPR of 2 means we should be willing to commit with a strong 1 pair hand in a number of post flop situations (because the villain will presumably be willing to commit with worse, which is a key point for spr). If the villain shoved over our flop c-bet I would have called, because I think a LAG with a low spr might do this with AQ/KQ as well as some lessor hands. If the villain was a super-nit who would only shove QQ, then I would fold.

              Unfortunately for us most of his flop calling range that will bet the turn includes hands that beat us now (slow playing), and big queens which sucked out on the turn. It's ok to let this go.

              SPR is a tool to keep us mindful of not routinely putting a big chunk of our stack in the pot then folding, but that doesn't mean never, ever fold... sometimes we'll find ourselves in spots that are an exception.
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              • #8
                gotcha Lang, but with AA wouldn't it be better to 4bet around 3x or $4 pre. Which will allow us to bet bigger on the flop.....

                Personally I don't think he is folding any hands pre for the larger 4bet, that he flats for the smaller one.
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                • #9
                  Originally posted by Sle4zy_E View Post
                  gotcha Lang, but with AA wouldn't it be better to 4bet around 3x or $4 pre. Which will allow us to bet bigger on the flop.....

                  Personally I don't think he is folding any hands pre for the larger 4bet, that he flats for the smaller one.
                  I think our sizing of 2.2-x is a bit small for being OOP and 150bb deep, but 3x is just too large imo. I like in the neighborhood of $3.75 personally.
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