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Folded To A River Bet - 25NL Fullring -

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  • Folded To A River Bet - 25NL Fullring -

    I perceived this opponent to be a solid player, here's his stats at the time: I bet big preflop as I was in early position. I'm regularly 4x'ing from UTG these days, always the same size although it's usually with premiums. Postflop I c-bet, I think that's standard? What about the sizing? On The Turn I still think I'm ahead but I decide to check-call hoping to allow him space to bluff-off with worse hands. Looking back on it I think this was a mistake? Both the King on the River and the size of his bet I do not like, it smacks well in his range. I'm putting him on AK, KJ, Sets with 8's, J's, 4's. It's unlikely he hit a backdoor flush draw but it is out there and possible. I fold OTR because most of the time I find one-pair hands just not strong enough in these spots at showdown. I didn't like to fold and not sure if it was the correct thing to do. I also think I lost initiative by not leading out with a bet OTT? All advice, thoughts and ideas welcome.
    Sorry, this hand was deleted by its owner
    Raiser umbup:

  • #2
    No problem if you raise more early position as standard. You cbet strong and IMO I like ( $1 pre then $1.50 close enough). But then not to fire twice?

    That may be a bet fold or bet call. But I don't understand if the stats tell you what to do. Giving up the initiative sets us up for a problem. Now facing a solid turn bet, it's a blank though giving what back door?

    So now I'll shut up, river not a clue. Bet turn and then raised similar dilemma. A set or not, then to some nut flush - why do people say that's polarized. It's a bluff or not.

    Stats: was looking top down "river" but now see is that vpip/pfr 11/8(116) tight?
    Last edited by ForrestFive; Mon Sep 01, 2014, 09:50 AM. Reason: Joke - polarized. It's a bluff or not.


    • #3
      My guess is its a fold seen as he probably don't have any straight draws in these positions that peeled flop and then bet two streets, the question is what does he do with 99 TT.

      I think if the river was a non diamond K it would be a call as he can v bet worse then or would the river be a call because villain can v bet thinner for value as he would have more busted draws seen as diamonds missed but i think that would only apply in late positions seen as here the ranges are much more tighter.

      Or i could be over thinking it again ive been getting confused lately with watching stuff from higher stakes with all these thin v bets/bluffs and raising ranges im not used to.


      • #4

        I'll throw my thoughts in here.
        Given by the stats I don't agree that he's as solid as you give him credit too, more like a shy nit, somewhat positional aware.
        Seems he is only confident raising his LP hands (not a limper though from EP) otherwise calls pretty wide MP 5/21 MP (he calls 25% of hands dealt in MP given his PFR there is 0).
        That being said, pre and flop looks solid on your part, turn is not looking good. Maybe a check min-raise / fold to shove line is better, but that's just me.
        If he indeed is a good regular, which I doubt, then he would be betting for value and you can make a crying fold, otherwise, he tries to bluff a turn that nobody bluffs, if that makes any sense, as the 2d is a complete brick. And yes, giving up initiative it leaves us open to attacks OTR and we are likely to be pushed away by any A or K. I frankly don't think he was looking for the backdoor flush.



        • #5
          We have a lot stronger hands to bluffcatch here. I'd prefer calling with the Qd.


          • #6
            Birday would you bluff catch QQ if the river was Kc or Kh? Or are you only calling because he can rep the backdoor flush with a turned draw or something.

            Im pretty sure ive seen 500nl players VB AJ on a non diamond K here.


            • #7
              Hi Paul,

              This guy seems pretty nitty imo, 11/8 over 116 hands with no 3b's in 43 opportunities. While we don't have post flop stats given, my guess is he's not a likely candidate to make river bluffs in spots like this. So I think as played the river is a clear check/fold (and if the river goes check/check, we win).

              Flop sizing is fine, the c-bet is a bit large but I think it's ok here as I don't expect this guy to fold a jack for this price, nor call with weaker pairs even for a better price.

              Turn I think bet/folding is much better than check/calling against a tight/conservative player, I would bet about half the pot here to target Jx for value, and folding if raised is pretty clear. The primary reason of checking to induce bluffs isn't a good fit for this spot imo because:

              1) his flop calling range doesn't include hands that would need to bluff on this dry board... there's no draws except gut shots and he's both unlikely to be playing these card combos preflop, and unlikely to call a 72% pot flop bet with a gutter.

              2) Tight/conservative players are the worst bluff candidates to begin with. He'll just check behind us and take a free card with a lot of his worse made hands.

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