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chasing...

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  • chasing...

    Yet another chase after a draw. I needed a T or Q: 6 outs: 6.83 - 1 draw odds On the flop I get 4.4 - 1 pot odds There are two opponents and two streets ahead so I mumble something about implied odds and click Call. On the turn I get 5.2 - 1 pot odds so it's getting better. On the river I get 7.2 - 1, so I call based on "bluff odds" (odds that villain is bluffing, just made that up). Is this justifiable? Where should I have stopped? Am I a calling station? - H P.S of course i only figured out all these numbers in retrospect, in real-time i just acted on gross estimation

  • #2
    I'm not sure how you came up with these numbers.. but they're not what I get. This is chasing because we do NOT have the correct odds to continue in the hand. I only want to continue when I have the correct odds and expect to gain chips. On the flop I need to call 12 cents into a pot that will be 64 cents (18.75%). I have 4 Q's as outs and possibly 2 tens (but I'd seriously discount the 10's as someone else will probably get a straight. 4 outs is only worth 8% and even if the 10's are good, 6 outs is only worth 12%. Since my pot equity (18.75%) is higher than my hand equity (8%).... this is a clear fold. On the turn, I'd have to call 20 cents into a pot that will be $1.24 (16.1%). My hand is still only worth 8%... so this is another clear fold as I expect to LOSE 8.1% every time I call. On the river, I have to call 20 cents into $1.65.. so I need the opp to have a worse hand about 1 in every 8 times. With 3 broadway cards on the board, I'm basically never going to see this many hands worse than me... so it's another clear fold. This IS a good example of chasing (calling bets when I don't have the correct odds to do so)... something that poker players want to avoid... unless they like losing money. Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.umbup: John (JWK24)
    Super-Moderator



    6 Time Bracelet Winner


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