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50NL 6m- big hand vs. strong reg deep

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  • 50NL 6m- big hand vs. strong reg deep

    Interesting hand here, thought it might make a nice discussion... Stats: UTG- 23/19, 3B 6%, AF 2.7, CB flop 71, CB turn 57, CB river 42, EP 15/15, WTSD 24%, W$SD 50%, win rate +6bb/100 (10K hands) BB- 31/22, 3B 6%, AF 1.8, WTSD 28%, W$SD 45%, win rate -22bb/100 (3K hands) $0.50 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players Hand converted by PokerTracker 4 BB: $54.06 UTG: $129.98 MP: $35.05 Hero (CO): $78.44 BTN: $51.82 SB: $84.17 SB posts SB $0.25, BB posts BB $0.50 Pre Flop: (pot: $0.75) Hero has UTG raises to $1.50, fold, Hero calls $1.50, fold, fold, BB calls $1.00 Flop: ($4.75, 3 players) BB checks, UTG bets $4.00, Hero calls $4.00, fold Turn: ($12.75, 2 players) UTG bets $9.50, Hero calls $9.50 River: ($31.75, 2 players) UTG checks, Hero bets $20.11 So 2 big points of discussion, and jump on anything else you see as well... 1) I don't think I can raise flop or turn vs. these sizings. If he reraises I'm in trouble and he's good enough to get away from worse hands like AK/AA 2) I did value bet the river (sizing?) because all draws missed and he might bluff catch me with AK+. If he check/shoves, as insane as it seems I think I have to fold as that would seem to me to be KK/QQ a ton. Thoughts?
    Last edited by TheLangolier; Fri Aug 15, 2014, 04:58 PM. Reason: convert cards to graphics
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  • #2
    I'd go smaller otr. I think we wanna bet AK for value, and i dont think we can for this size. I'd prefer $15/$16.

    Play up to the river is good.

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    • #3
      Tough reading text converted hands and I have no experience to comment on the big points.

      The btn & sb folded? We have position (CO) 99, 3-way with (UTG & BB). Flop trips, 2 overs no spades. UTG raiser makes a big bet. We call, turn 4h gives 2 flush combos spades and hearts. Our 9h not happy.

      Can we consider the 4h a blank (it's a back-door suit) but villain makes another big bet. Yep, can't raise that to $29.99 do we fold too much? River 4c. Two run out paired baby cards no flush gets there.

      Villain checks - what? Do we think "no 3 streets of value"... Must be a 1 pair hand, we can't bluff them off a boat with a submarine.

      Don't know if I read the hand / line correctly. Why is, "What worse will call" stuck in my head? Probably misunderstanding river value decisions.

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      • #4
        I think the hand looks well played.

        I think the river sizing is pretty decent, we don't want to be so little IMO that villain feels he cane raise his two pairs for value because we induce that action. I think this bet is still getting action from the top hands he has like KQs, AK, AQ at a stretch but as you say he is a solid reg I doubt he would see us as value betting less than a K.

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        • #5
          I thought KJs KTs was a pretty standard check on the flop so why would we bet AK on the river if he always calls AK?

          Don't we just risk paying off better hands, i cant get my head around these loose calls i would have a hard time calling KQ on the river never mind Kx.

          Anyway i like the way the hand was played.

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          • #6
            Just wrote a ton that got deleted. Sad.

            I think raising before is out of the question.

            Count your combos on the river. What do you want to bluff and to value bet? I see

            JTs 4 QQ 3 and 99 3 in value bet. I think KQs 2 is check back. Bluffs I see ATss AJss AThh AJhh. In theory we might add QJhh AQhh, but not practice .

            In any case I think we should be betting closer to 12.5. 10 value bets to 4 bluffs lays 10 to 4. To lay 10 to 4 we need to be betting smaller.

            Remember that if we are bluffing seldomly we should bet size smaller on the river, this is such an instance imo.

            Folding to a check shove seems pretty clear with 99 in any case. But esp in the case where you got to the river with JTs 4 and QQ 3 the same way.

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            • #7
              Great stuff, thanks for the comments all.

              I agree on the river sizing, which is why at the risk of prompting, I referenced it in the OP. After I did it I felt like it was too large, he won't call that. I felt like $14 would have been about right. Thanks Gareth for crystallizing the thoughts on why a slightly smaller sizing than even that makes sense.

              And I would have folded to a check-shove, as I feel pretty confident he is only taking that action with KK/QQ specifically the way the entire hand has played out. My large river sizing only makes that more clear imo.

              In the end, I wasn't put to that test, he folded. Interesting hand to think about none the less.
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              • #8
                Originally posted by GarethC23 View Post
                Count your combos on the river. What do you want to bluff and to value bet? I see

                JTs 4 QQ 3 and 99 3 in value bet. I think KQs 2 is check back. Bluffs I see ATss AJss AThh AJhh. In theory we might add QJhh AQhh, but not practice .

                In any case I think we should be betting closer to 12.5. 10 value bets to 4 bluffs lays 10 to 4. To lay 10 to 4 we need to be betting smaller.
                Are you using the same 10 to 4 bet sizing for your bluffs? Or increasing it to prevent the odds to call?


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                • #9
                  The whole point of choosing that sizing is so you are betting the same with value and bluffs to make the villain indifferent about calling.

                  Having 2 separate sizings for value / bluffs doesn't make much sense game theory wise.

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                  • #10
                    If we are betting the same with bluffs and for value and giving him the correct odds to call then. it would be a profitable(or EV neutral) call for him?

                    If it's profitable for him. Then that profit would be coming from us.

                    So should we be betting something over $12.5. So that he makes a mistake when they call.


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                    • #11
                      Hey

                      I see one thing that can't understand. Our UTG opp flop raise size OOP - why would he raise that much into you after the BB checks ?
                      Isolate the BB by making you fold makes the most sense or make you both fold ?!.
                      Turn : LAG UTG is stabbing again but this time with a smaller % (flop is 84% bet of pot, turn is 74% of it and is not committing nor him nor yourself)
                      I don't think you were the target here to be honest.

                      Regards.

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                      • #12
                        If he had flopped Top set or second set, would he have bet the flop?

                        I think I'd have narrowed his range by removing KK and QQ personally.

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