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25NL Zoom 33 hit set on a soaking wet drenched board

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  • 25NL Zoom 33 hit set on a soaking wet drenched board

    One question and only one question, is turn a fold here, even if the board pairs we aren't always good. Villain is 19/19 over 26 hands and 0.6 AgF. The reason I post this hand is that I am trying to examine if I can reduce the amount of small pots that I am losing as its having a pretty damaging effect on my WR. I just think Ax is such a high part of the OR's range that I should just be check folding, even to a half pot bet.

  • #2
    I don't like leading on this board. We will get called by a ton of hands when we lead here, I think a XR OTF would have played better.

    OTT: I think XF is out of the question. BF might be okay depending on how big the villain raises us. But we still have outs.

    As played we should be calling here OTT (3:1) and make a decision on the river.

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    • #3
      I think this board will get cbet quite aggressively by overpairs and hands with backdoor draws. I don't really think we should be leading. I'd rather x/c and then raise most turns.

      As played I think we should x/c turn and evaluate rivers based on sizing and obviously what card it is. I would be leading nearly all board pairing rivers.

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      • #4
        Originally posted by bhoylegend View Post
        I just think Ax is such a high part of the OR's range that I should just be check folding, even to a half pot bet.
        Given the odds folding would be a severe mistake OTT as you're getting 3:1 and have ~30% equity vs Ax/6x still, not factoring in potential implied odds which should be good given the texture and multiway dynamic (increasing likelihood of villain having a straight at this point of the hand).

        I actually don't mind leading OTF, especially if that's what I would be doing with most of my range here multiway. We make some good money off Ax that may be scared to bet multiway.
        Live Trainer



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        • #5
          Ok, thanks guys, I did call turn and folded river. So I don't know what he had but seriously doubt I was ahead.

          I was hoping to get action from overpairs and AX with the lead but the 5 kind of scuppered the plan. Just the worst run out.

          Trying to find spots to boost win rates by folding earlier in some hands but don't want to go over the top.

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