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  • NL25

    MP: $31.93 (VPIP: 12.50, PFR: 10.00, 3Bet Preflop: 3.40, Hands: 406)
    MP+1: $25.00 (VPIP: 2.50, PFR: 2.50, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 41)
    CO: $36.46 (VPIP: 45.83, PFR: 12.50, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 25)
    BTN: $8.80 (VPIP: 13.87, PFR: 11.62, 3Bet Preflop: 4.53, Hands: 727)
    SB: $25.00 (VPIP: 11.89, PFR: 10.21, 3Bet Preflop: 4.09, Hands: 665)
    BB: $20.20 (VPIP: 17.39, PFR: 13.04, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 24)
    Hero (UTG): $24.20
    UTG+1: $25.00 (VPIP: 16.67, PFR: 8.33, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 12)
    UTG+2: $43.58 (VPIP: 16.67, PFR: 11.40, 3Bet Preflop: 2.63, Hands: 117)

    SB posts SB $0.10, BB posts BB $0.25, UTG+1 posts penalty blind $0.25

    Pre Flop: (pot: $0.60) Hero has A:diamond: Q:club:

    Hero raises to $1.25, fold, fold, MP calls $1.25, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold

    Flop: ($3.10, 2 players) 6:club: 6:diamond: T:club:
    Hero bets $1.77, MP calls $1.77

    Turn: ($6.64, 2 players) 3:spade:
    Hero bets $3.50, MP calls $3.50

    River: ($13.64, 2 players) T:diamond:
    Hero checks, MP checks

    Villain is a solid reg so i put him on pre flop range:
    22-QQ AJ-AK
    OTF i think we have to c-bet all are raising range so i think this is not a mistake, and with this bet he should fold 22-55 and maybe AJ.
    Now the question after his call do we bet the turn or just let it go? In my opinion we are UTG raiser with a big bet so if we bet he should fold all his range except 1010, 66 and QQ, so it is a lot of hands to fold so i bet. Is it correct?
    After a call i think he has JJ and not decide to go all in because i don't know if he can fold JJ on this board. I think normal bet on the river could not make him fold JJ.
    Comments suggestion?

  • #2
    Hi rudar,

    This run out is not one I would expect him to fold his pocket pairs on, so I think we should just check the turn and be prepared to fold to a bet.

    I agree if you are going to get him off his pairs you will need to empty the clip. The guy is pretty nitty and nits make a tempting target for the play, but this run out does nothing to encourage him to fold. If he actually is solid as you say and not just a straight up bad nit, then I think we are getting called mostly on this run out.

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