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50nl - Easy River Call or Not? I Have Two Pairs.

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  • 50nl - Easy River Call or Not? I Have Two Pairs.

    UTG+2: $36.40 (VPIP: 44.44, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 9)
    MP: $45.43 (VPIP: 40.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 5)
    MP+1: $50.75 (VPIP: 17.78, PFR: 11.11, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 46)
    CO: $50.00 (VPIP: 13.79, PFR: 10.34, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 89)
    BTN: $49.85 (VPIP: 20.59, PFR: 8.82, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 35)
    SB: $70.96 (VPIP: 11.43, PFR: 9.05, 3Bet Preflop: 2.78, Hands: 211)
    Hero (BB): $78.99
    UTG: $77.24 (VPIP: 18.46, PFR: 16.92, 3Bet Preflop: 4.17, Hands: 65)
    UTG+1: $18.29 (VPIP: 30.36, PFR: 17.86, 3Bet Preflop: 9.09, Hands: 57)

    SB posts SB $0.25, Hero posts BB $0.50

    Pre Flop: (pot: $0.75) Hero has 8:spade: 7:spade:

    fold, fold, fold, MP raises to $1.00, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls $0.50

    Flop: ($2.25, 2 players) 7:heart: 3:heart: 8:club:
    Hero bets $1.29, MP calls $1.29

    Turn: ($4.83, 2 players) Q:heart:
    Hero bets $2.76, MP raises to $7.00, Hero calls $4.24

    River: ($18.83, 2 players) T:club:
    Hero checks, MP bets $14.00, Hero calls $14.00

    Player unknown but as we see from 6 hands he could be a potential bad player

    On the flop i lead out to protect my hand from a hart flush draw and to collect value from all big pairs, would he raise bigger pre flop his big pairs hmmm i don't know. any way Qh comes on turn but I continue to bet and after his raise we start to re evaluate our hand. I decide to call because he can be doing this with lot of hands and basically we are not beaten by any hand except flush and maybe set of QQ, i suppose he would raise set 3 on the flop and set of 7 and 8 are less likely because two of each in the deck. River is...... i don't know if he has a flush let it be it. I and make a call and .....
    So what do you think, did i play bad? Could i play it better and how? Villans range in all streets?
    In my opinion we have to call pre flop because it is a great value and our hand is nice to play after the flop!

  • #2
    Hi rudar47,
    I’m not a big fan of the preflop call. Because I personally am not very comfortable with those type of hands OOP. But then again we are getting a 2:1 on a call. What I want to keep in mind is that to show profit with these types of hands, we might want to make use of our hand from its bluffing potential and maybe blockers considering some runouts. What I’m trying to say, is that I don’t want to be playing this hand to showdown with maybe just one pair or something like that.
    Anyway, here’s a great spot to x/r this flop. We can do this with sets, two pairs, OESD, gutshots, and FDs. Again, since I’m not balancing too much my donk betting plays I’d rather take a x/r line here and if villain checks back we can always lead the turn for value.
    As played, it’s always easy to get pessimistic when a 3rd color rolls off but given that the villain did not raise our flop bet then maybe we can rule out a few combos of FDs. I’m not happy with this turn card, but maybe we can still extract some value from some one pair hand + 1 heart (maybe something like Ah8x or the likes) When we get raised, I’m now even less happy with this turn card and what I want to see is if we are getting the right pot odds and implied odds to call to make a boat OTR.
    We need to call 4.24 into 18.83 or 3.4:1 pot odds and we have 4 outs or 11.5:1 to hit on the next card. Subtract 11.5-3.4 to calculate our implied odd = 8.1 which means we need to win 8.1x4.24$ (the bet we have to call) = 34.34$ more in the remainder of the hand



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