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10NL zoom - KK river spot

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  • 10NL zoom - KK river spot

    Poker Stars, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
    Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

    SB: $15.69 (156.9 bb)
    BB: $10.22 (102.2 bb)
    Hero (UTG): $10.48 (104.8 bb)
    MP: $14.15 (141.5 bb)
    CO: $12.16 (121.6 bb)
    BTN: $22.54 (225.4 bb)

    Preflop: Hero is UTG with K K
    Hero raises to $0.30, 2 folds, BTN calls $0.30, SB calls $0.25, BB folds

    Flop: ($1) Q 8 3 (3 players)
    SB checks, Hero bets $0.72, BTN calls $0.72, SB folds

    Turn: ($2.44) 7 (2 players)
    Hero bets $1.75, BTN calls $1.75

    River: ($5.94) 6 (2 players)

    I do not have a lot of stats about this villain.
    VPIP: 25
    PFR: 17
    AGG: 0.2
    Hands: 37
    He called cbet IP in single raised pot (flop/turn/river): 100(1)/100(1)/100(1)
    It's not a 3bet pot, but in 3bet spot he called cbet IP: 100(1)/100(1)/-

    So I opened KK in UTG and decided to cbet flop ant turn and I was thinking what to do on the river.
    What would you recomend to do in this spot? Is it beter to x/c and give his a chance to bluff or bet/fold or even shove to look like we missed FD and maybe get a call from Qx and of course better hands? (Personally I do not think shoving is a good in this spot)
    What size of the bet would you not call if you decide to x/c?

  • #2
    Hi ImStylo,

    I think this is a pretty straight forward bet/fold. I agree shoving is too heavy handed, 7.45 into 5.94 is a bit optimistic. I think about 3-3.50 is right. I feel this is superior to check/calling because

    1) Villain has significantly more made hand combos in his range than draws (including a lot of Qx)

    2) Villain has been very passive post flop in the observed data, so even though the sample size is small, there's no good reason to believe they will bluff a busted draw anyway.
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