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10NL -6 max- Reg tables

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  • 10NL -6 max- Reg tables

    Hey, so just wondering if i could have done something different. Maybe fold river as i think I'm calling for a chop at best really. But his value range is so thin here, especially when the 9 hits the river he doesn't have 99 much anymore. I figure we are just chopping a ton, as he would 3 bet pre flop with Aces that beat me, i didn't think he would play a single 9 like that, i guess its like 33 or just a spazz? Actually i guess i can fold turn, thats probably best as he just has sets so often, even though his sizing is really weird so it makes me think he's bluffing or has a mediocre hand like a middle Ace which is why i call river for the chop. I dunno, any feed back would be nice i just wrote down like all my thoughts as they came to me, so thats really scattered. Thanks! umbup:

  • #2
    Hey silken,

    Any stats on the villain? Donk flop % etc? 3bet from the blinds?

    I think a pot donk here can mean several things. We block some draws, so expect to see weak Ax, 9x a lot. Maybe villain donks strong, previous reads help tons in these spots. So villain can have sets, two pair etc also. Villain should in theory c/raise strong hands depending on perception of us (cbetting a lot?). An ace high board is something we will probably cbet with a lot of our range so he get's value from a lot of bluffs by checking.

    Ott I think it's likely we don't have the best hand now. These two bets would make me scew villains range towards very strong hands like 2 pair and sets. I would not expect villain to continue with this sizing with a 9 anymore (unless A9,93s). This is why I don't think folding turn is a good idea, despite the sizing. We can have the best hand some non zero percentage of the time (and river goes check/check), and given the size of these bets we could get villains whole stack on a heart river if they are donking strong.

    River is a fold despite the board pairing. Blocking the most likely heart draw villain could call with preflop helps in this spot for me. Villain may bluff catch river as a lot of draws miss with ax (one pair we chop with) so expect to get shown a better hand a large percentage of the time here.
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    • #3
      Hi silken,

      No reads on this guy? Seems aggro from this hand.

      At any rate, I agree with the assessment that he seems strong given this sizing... that being said, I think folding the turn would be a clear mistake. We're getting 2-1 and implied odds of 7-1 with the money behind, and if he's as strong as the line/sizing indicates we can reasonably expect to realize some (if not all) of those implied odds otr when we make the nuts. Once we miss however, folding the river seems like a good option. Like you said, we are expecting a chop at best here and quite often going to get shown A9, AQ, or 33 imo. $4.30 to win $2.15 in a chop means we have to be right quite a bit to justify the risk, and his sizing indicates we won't be often enough imo.
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