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FR 25NL, QJo flopped trips, V 3bets stack

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  • FR 25NL, QJo flopped trips, V 3bets stack

    55 hand sample
    Villain 21/19 ATS 33 Cbet 100

    PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (9 handed)

    MP2 ($54.57)
    MP3 ($32.81)
    CO ($29.66)
    Button ($26.69)
    SB ($26.15)
    Hero (BB) ($25.16)
    UTG ($10.76)
    UTG+1 ($25.70)
    MP1 ($19.75)

    Preflop: Hero is BB with Q, J
    7 folds, SB raises to $0.62, Hero calls $0.37

    Flop: ($1.24) 3, Q, Q (2 players)
    SB bets $0.74, Hero calls $0.74

    Turn: ($2.72) 7 (2 players)
    SB bets $1.50, Hero raises to $4.75, SB raises to $24.79 (All-In),

    With only 4 likely hands ahead of us and the less likely Q3 and Q7, is this ever a fold?

    Feel free to comment on the rest of the hand as well.
    Last edited by Sle4zy_E; Fri Jun 20, 2014, 09:24 PM.
    Bracelet Winner

  • #2
    Hi Sle4zy,

    Just call turn imo... most of his range is going to be air/bluffs that will just fold to a raise, and most of said air is drawing dead, so give him one more chance to bluff the river. Also, if we go call/call, he might check/call river with sdv like A7 or 66, thinking he will hero us blind v blind. Where as if we raise turn it both looks stronger and is a leveraged bet so he's more likely to fold weakish pairs.

    As played I think it's a fold. I don't expect a 21/19 guy to bet/3b jam on the turn with a bluff or draw here. I think this is likely pure value. The question is will he wildly overvalue AA/KK in this way? Probably not. Most players will simply call your raise.

    So we are losing to AQ/KQ/77/33 (22 combos), are tied with QJ and beating QT/Q9 (16 combos). He's a favorite to have us beat imo, if he would even 3b jam all of these for value. The weaker the Qx gets the less likely he becomes to 3b jam and the more likely to just call your raise, so it seems to me he's pretty heavily weighted to hands that are beating us. We are never drawing dead ofc, but probably not wise to call off hoping to improve, if we mostly do need to improve to win.
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