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25nl - AA vs nit on Q/K high board linecheck

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  • 25nl - AA vs nit on Q/K high board linecheck

    Villain was playing 8/7 over a significant sample size. Preflop I decided to 3bet to take initiative and compensate for being OOP, but also because villain's range is pretty strong here and I'll get value (and very likely get 4bet) from that range. A 3bet here is far superior than calling to trap for those reasons. The flop comes Q22 and I bet out. Reviewing this hand, I could have made the bet a lot bigger. Anything he's calling that bet with, he'll call a bigger bet with. I'm realistically only beat by QQ at this point but there are still a lot of hands to get value from, such as AQ, a few pairs and maybe even AK if he decides to peel one. One question I have here is what I would do if he raises. I would probably have to call him down since he could be raising with AQ and kings, although I have no idea how he plays post flop since he's been so tight. He decides to call and save me the agony. Thoughts on this is still appreciated. The turn is a K. I decided to check here and go for pot control. The main reasons were that on one hand, I could bet and get value from AK and maybe even from AQ. However, by betting I open myself up to getting raised and being in a really tough spot. QQ/KK are very likely hands for him to hold and if I bet, he'll raise those, and just call AK or even fold AQ and pairs. If I check, I keep the AK and the likes in his range and he'll likely bet a far wider range and I'll get value from those anyway and at the same time control the pot size and not inflate it too much with my overpair. I'm planning to ch/c both streets regardless for that reason. The river is completes the heart flush but it's essentially a blank. He won't have many unpaired heart hands since I'm holding the ace. I opt to check again due to the reasons I mentioned earlier. By betting I open myself up to get raised by better hands and only called by worse hands, while checking gives him a chance to bet most of his range and guarantee me a showdown against a wider one. Did I miss value by betting two streets or was it the right approach? Maybe even make a small value bet on the river, like 1/5th or 1/4th pot or something or just check and let him bet his wide range? And what do I do if I get raised on the flop? What about my line of thought and reasoning in this hand given the profiling and somewhat lack of postflop reads? ....

  • #2
    Hi Fesk,

    Thanks for posting your thoughts in such depth... I can offer comments on some of them that I think boils down to way overthinking a nit. One thing that is curious... you have a significant sample, but aren't using any of this post flop info in your decision points?

    Ok, so preflop I certainly agree with 3-betting, although I think it's inaccurate to say we are very likely to get 4b. We are probably not getting 4b. I've never met a nit with PFR 7% who 4-bets all of it. But 3-betting is still good for value because as you said, his range rates to be very strong and we cooler all of it. Our 3b will probably get called a high % of the time simply because his open range is strong.

    I agree with you on making a bigger flop bet. Like you said, he's either got top pair+, or he doesn't. The value in a smaller bet is to get a player to peel with AK or JJ type hands, but the simple fact is that nits just don't... so go ahead and maximize value vs. his Qx+.

    You asked about what to do if raised on the flop... again post flop stats would play into this decision, but without them and just going on the read of nit, it's an easy fold. A nit is not raising you with AQ or KK... nits are scared. AA scares them. QQ scares them. They are not going to fold AQ on the flop but the are certainly not going to raise you. When a nit raises us on this board the pretty much have QQ. Rule of thumb vs. nits are to take all the small pots, be careful in medium, and don't pay them off when they want to play a huge pot.

    After the flop I think we should be going for 1 more street of value. Since he has so few flush draws considering the A and K are accounted for, a free card isn't really dangerous. I would generally check to him on the turn... I feel like a nit will just fold AK all the time to your flop bet, so that makes this an awful card for us. KK just sucked out, and AQ won't like to call again. KQs we are still beating though.

    In short, I think our hand, when good, is only good for 1 more street of value vs. a nit here, maybe. And when good, we have a much better chance of getting it on the river if we can create some doubt about having it with a turn check. So I feel like the play is to check the turn, intending to put 1 street of action in. If he checks behind us, bet/fold the river. If he bets, call, and check/fold the river. Again with some actual post flop reads/stats we can make a more informed decision but just in the vacuum of facing a nit who's called a 3b preflop, I think this is optimal.
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