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NL16 bad bluff spot?

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  • NL16 bad bluff spot?

    PokerStars - $0.16 NL - Holdem - 7 players
    Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

    Hero (BB): $16.00
    UTG: $17.84
    UTG+1: $26.66 (VPIP: 32.14, PFR: 3.57, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 28)
    MP: $11.66
    CO: $19.47 (VPIP: 23.71, PFR: 16.84, 3Bet Preflop: 3.45, Hands: 292)
    BTN: $15.68 (VPIP: 22.47, PFR: 11.39, 3Bet Preflop: 1.78, Hands: 408)
    SB: $15.10 (VPIP: 18.75, PFR: 10.86, 3Bet Preflop: 7.44, Hands: 312)

    SB posts SB $0.08, Hero posts BB $0.16

    Pre Flop: (pot: $0.24) Hero has Q:diamond: A:diamond:

    UTG raises to $0.64, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls $0.48

    Flop: ($1.36, 2 players) 7:heart: 3:club: J:diamond:
    Hero checks, UTG bets $0.84, Hero calls $0.84

    Turn: ($3.04, 2 players) K:spade:
    Hero checks, UTG bets $1.59, Hero raises to $4.64, UTG calls $3.05

    River: ($12.32, 2 players) K:club:
    Hero bets $9.88 and is all-in, UTG calls $9.88

    Not sure is this a good spot to bluff or not, but to mix my game form the time when i have sets or KJ is for sure, OFC does not help that we don't have any stats of villain

  • #2
    Villain makes it 4x PF. I would be very cautious here. 4x is usually a strong value hand TT+ and AK both suited and off suit.

    I like the just call PF. I think our hand is too strong to fold and we want to see a flop. 3-betting will get us into trouble here.

    OTF: The XC isn't bad with 2 overs to the board and back door NF but it's going to be hard to play this OOP. I would elect for a XR right here OTF. If we pull a diamond OTT we can either lead or check and see what our opponent does.

    OTT: This K is really bad for us and EXTREMELY good for our opponent. As played, XF this turn 100%.

    OTR: We should never have gotten here and bluffing now is going to be bad. Sometimes we will have showdown value with Ace high here in-case the villain was double barreling QTs and calling a XR OTT but I think the villain has 3 jacks, AK or AA here too often and is going to call every time.

    Last edited by dirt eh; Tue Jun 17, 2014, 06:39 PM. Reason: change 4-betting to 3-betting


    • #3
      But how would we play if we hit sets OTF? I think the same way as i played it here.
      Plus we can hit 10 OTR and like this beat his AK (if he has it) ofc board is pared on the turn so waiting for a strait here is crazy, my plan was to get him of the hand if possible. In any case playing a set in this way will bring me more money than this bluff because i wont bluff like this every day. Just my way of thinking, doesn't mean it is correct!


      • #4
        If you had a set OTF. Probably play it the way you played the hand. At these stakes and higher stakes, villains probably won't be folding AK on this run out for 100bb. Folding AK on this run out would be really bad for 100bb. They might fold AA. Obviously AK, all full houses and sometimes KQ will call this river shove.

        OTT you're raising with only 4 outs! I don't approve this turn raise at all.


        • #5
          Hi rudar47

          To answer your question, I'm going to start by defining what a buff means or what we want to achieve with a bluff. We basically want our opponent to fold a portion of their range because our hand won't win as often; what this implies is that villain should be capable to fold and more importantly should have weak hands in their range. Because ranges are tight from UTG their range will hit strongly either OTF or OTT and that's because they can have AA and KK when we likely don't have in our calling range. Although the line you took might very well represent sets, but with sets we are hoping to get called because we know their range is strong. If we think villain will fold then maybe raising with sets might not be the most exploitative line But we raise with sets for value because we know that villain will call with more hands than fold, so you see this is contrary to what we want to achieve here with a bluff. Try to do this exercise and put an opening range for your opponent and see what type of hand strength we will see by the turn and what % of his range will be weak and can fold.



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