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NL 25 +EV or -EV spot on the flop

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  • NL 25 +EV or -EV spot on the flop

    PokerStars - $0.25 NL - Holdem - 7 players
    Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

    CO: $25.00 (VPIP: 8.89, PFR: 6.67, 3Bet Preflop: 15.38, Hands: 45)
    BTN: $24.65 (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 2)
    SB: $30.01 (VPIP: 13.51, PFR: 11.00, 3Bet Preflop: 5.63, Hands: 934)
    Hero (BB): $23.90
    UTG: $26.96 (VPIP: 16.67, PFR: 14.29, 3Bet Preflop: 5.00, Hands: 44)
    UTG+1: $25.00 (VPIP: 14.58, PFR: 12.76, 3Bet Preflop: 7.14, Hands: 391)
    MP: $30.28 (VPIP: 22.00, PFR: 14.00, 3Bet Preflop: 10.00, Hands: 50)

    SB posts SB $0.10, Hero posts BB $0.25

    Pre Flop: (pot: $0.35) Hero has K:diamond: K:club:

    fold, fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to $0.75, fold, Hero raises to $2.25, BTN calls $1.50

    Flop: ($4.60, 2 players) 5:heart: 2:diamond: 9:spade:
    Hero bets $2.63, BTN raises to $7.75, Hero raises to $21.65 and is all-in, BTN calls $13.90

    Turn: ($47.90, 2 players) T:club:

    River: ($47.90, 2 players) 3:club:


    We don't have any data on the guy so this is a little had spot for me. I get it in and hope for the best but is it correct?

  • #2
    Hi rudar47

    BTN raises to $0.75, fold, Hero raises to $2.25: I'd stick with 10bbs whenever I am oop facing a 3x open; I want to charge more for my positional disadvantage with both my value and light 3bets

    This flop really has nothing going on for either ranges. Which tells me that the villain is unlikely to have a set because they should be flatting our cbet with any set on a dry flop. 9x is unlikely to raise us at this point and if so would shutdown when we re-raise them. So Hands I expect to see in their range will be medium PPs, some bluffs, and the occasional AA that flat 3bet IP BTN v Blind. I think we can go either ways here. Either gii if we expect them to put the rest in with 88/TT/JJ, or call their flop raise and plan to gii when they bet turn or bet ourselves OTR if they check back turn.
    If you see AA or sets: Don't forget to take a note

    Comment


    • #3
      Good guess GEO he had 10 10. I was thinking no way he is doing this with set

      Comment


      • #4
        Well i would of folded for two reasons, one being it looks pretty bad bluffing you with a low 3b and two why would villain raise TT+.

        How ever i like Georges's ranging here and i honestly didn't think players flat TT JJ QQ or whatever and then raise the flop it makes no sense to me.

        What does everyone think about raising an over pair here? I see players flatting AQ/AK and then getting it in on A high flops and it just makes no sense i cant understand how its good unless villain was gonna station worse hands.

        Comment


        • #5
          For me no sense also, when I see this kind of play I quickly make a not about this

          Comment

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