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25NL ZOOM, AKo IP facing three streets

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  • 25NL ZOOM, AKo IP facing three streets

    Villain(66): 16/13/8.0 3B: 0.0 on 19 samples This is the first time I've seen this player 3B. *sigh* call?

  • #2
    Yeah not folding.

    Generally the bb has quite a tight range 3betting MP, simply because they close the action. Generally it'd be a range of 4-5%.

    On this board, if we think about the range that beats us (from that preflop range), it's AA or JJ.

    AA is very unlikely given blockers. My only concern would be JJ (which is a parlay of him 3betting pre which I doubt albeit a small sample).

    It sucks have the Ks but i can't see how we can fold here.


    • #3
      I agree with birdayy about the bb having a tight 3b range given the postions. Moreover, the villain could c-bet the A high flop with 100% of his range. Note his betsizing though. His 3b is a "standard" 9bb. His flop c-bet is 70% of the pot which looks like he wants to protect his hand from a draw, again this looks standard for a reg. Now on the turn he bets half the pot rather than 70+%. Does he want to get called, or is he unsure of his hand? He puts the rest in on the river which seems to answer that question for me.

      If we put the villain on a somewhat wide range of JJ, QQ, KK and AA (and perhaps 22, 33, 44 and 55) as well as AJ, AQ AK. Which hands fit with his line? AA is unlikely, but it does fit. KK, QQ, 22 and 33 would slow down after we call the cbet on the A high board. AQ would normally take a pot control line after the flop. That leaves us with two pair AJ and sets that are all beating us or AK that we are splitting with. I am not sure if he is firing 3 barrels with AK and "just a pair" either.

      Unless I know the villain is a maniac, I am going to give him credit for what he is representing; a strong hand (set) that beats our tptk. I think folding to the turn bet might be the best choice, especially if we think the villain is a reg. It seems nitty, but the villain's line looks super strong, especially the smaller betsize. We aren't beating anything he is representing.

      As played, I would fold the river. I have seen weaker players stack off with KK on A high boards like this. However, our tptk isn't beating much more than bluffs and we have no history indicating that the villain gets out of line.


      • #4
        I seriously doubt he has AJ here.

        It's very unlikely a 25nl zoom player 3bets AJ BB vs MP. He'd simply call pre.

        And no other two pairs make sense with the preflop raise.


        • #5
          I agree that AJ is unlikely, as is AA. Although, I have 3b enough times with AJo, AA, 44 and 55 in spots like this. I don't do it every time, and it is probably a mistake when I do, but we can't exclude these hands from the range (and Im not too laggy). Rare events do occur (just rarely). The only hands that make sense are sets, maybe AJ or AK plus some crazy bluffs. We need to win the showdown 30% of the time to make calling profitable. We will split against AK 13% of the time with the range I gave him. Without notes indicating otherwize, I don't see the villain having near enough bluffs, overplayed Ax hands that we are beating in his range.



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