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25NL ZOOM, Turn Stab

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  • 25NL ZOOM, Turn Stab

    I just wanted to find out if I should be stabbing here with 44 OTT? After the initial 3-bettor misses there opportunity to cbet and the cold-caller checks twice... Should we be stabbing at this pot with our entire range? Are these stabs going to be +EV or -EV? Thanks, CO(61): 16/15/0.7 3B: 10.7 on 28 samples BB(37): 14/16/3.0 3B: 0.0 on 19 samples

  • #2
    I'd be giving up once I don't hit a set on that board.

    Hands in our range that kind of make sense to bet on the turn are AT/AQ but we possibly fold some combos of those to the 3bet, namely the offsuited varieties, depending on how our range is perceived we might even be folding ATs pre. I've deleted HEM from my PC so I can't remember what your range is made up of on the sample I have.

    I'm guessing he had AKo/AKs/AJs here with an outside chance of KJs/KJo.

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    • #3
      Pre flop, re-raise and a caller I fold (of course, depending on the notes I have) If I call pre, it's a check fold to any bets. But I'm not going to spew more money.

      Did you get lucky?

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      • #4
        Preflop you are oop and have a weak hand. I would normally fold, but wit the deep stacked bb calling you do have odds to set mine. If you are going to set mine in this spot though, we need to stick to the plan and fold when we don't flop a set. Continuing on missed flops is expensive. When set mining we need to keep our investment to a minimum in order to be profitable overall.

        This flop is pretty wet offering flush and straight draws. It seems unlikely that both opponents will fold to a turn bet. Furthermore, both players are pretty tight preflop and will have fairly strong ranges.

        Note: 4betting preflop would look extremely strong and will take the hand down quite often. However, 44 is too weak to 4b light with and if we 4b to $8 or $9 V6 may decide to move all in. Moreover, I don't have all the stats on these villains or your table image. No, I don't think 4b is a good idea either.

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        • #5
          Pre is whatever.

          We have a lot better hands to bet on this turn. I dislike betting because we really don't achieve anything.

          That being said, i think if you do decide to bet the turn, we should be bluffing the river. They've indicated they have a weak range, we have a blocker to a straight and pretty much no SDV.

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          • #6
            Originally posted by dirt eh View Post
            Should we be stabbing at this pot with our entire range?
            No, stabbing with 100% of your range is certainly bad.
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            • #7
              Hey DE, don't think I saw you in class on Wednesday? It covered when to give up on certain pocket pairs, even though we think they might be ahead for the moment


              Post-flop, this is a bit like the kind of spots where I've been taking a stab with hands as well, with pocket pairs - and there were others in class that wanted to call or bet at times where ... it wound up making a lot of sense to just stick to the plan to hopefully flop big. So it seems like it might be pretty common for lots of us to maybe start with one plan ... and then be tempted to try and 'value bluff' the turn?


              Hope I understood what was covered in class by the end of it - it sounded like, maybe it might be *okay* to take a stab at the turn with JJ or Ad Kd, but not 44-99? With Ad Kd being the better hand to have, since it has all those outs to improve (like, as many as ... 15?) if behind ... and I guess the benefit of betting with JJ is that if the villain was 3-betting light with AT and calls, it's ahead - also it blocks straight draws, etc.

              Guess with the 44, there was still a chance it could get to showdown and still sometimes be good, since the c/o was so passive ...


              Does everybody like a bet on the turn more with JJ or Ad Kd? Hope those'd be okay ...

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