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10nl zoom 6max, best line in this spot?

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  • 10nl zoom 6max, best line in this spot?

    Villain is 14/7 through 72 hands, called 2/10 opens otb. Bet vs missed cbet 50%, no turn stats. 0% 3bet. I like check/calling with the ace of clubs here. Betting without the ace of clubs. Seem fine? Not sure about turn, should I check/call one more as he could be value betting queens/AJ here? Not sure if this guy would flat utg with aj, suited maybe.
    Bracelet Winner

  • #2
    Hi Paddy Gar!

    You have a great starting hand, but I would cbet this flop. You know a bit about the villian, but you are out of position and the board is offers a lot of draw possibilities. The villain is fairly tight, but there is still a big gap between his vpip and pfr. Thus, I feel we can put him on a range of all pocket pairs, A10s+ A2s-A5s, AJo+, and suited broadways. There are enough hands in his range that connect with this board that I would cbet both for value and for protection.

    As played the turn card is not good for you. There are several 10x hands in the villain's range. Since we let him take the initiative on the flop, it is hard to say if he is betting for value with a made straight, if he is semi-bluffing with two clubs or protecting a top pair hand. Although his betsize does not look like he wants you to fold. Check-calling the turn is an option, but we are creating a tough river situation since we don't know much about his postflop play. Do you intend on leading out on the river if a club comes repping a flush? Do you intend on check-calling again on the river?

    Folding on the turn seems nitty, but folding is a good option since no river card is going to give us the nuts. No river card is going to allow us to bet or raise with confidence. I don't think we can call a river bet from the villain with just a pair on this this board. Thus, if we expect him to bet again, I would fold on the turn and save the 11 bbs, if we knew he had a low river aggression, calling the turn can be fine. With what we know about this villain, I think folding on the turn would be best.


    • #3
      I also believe cbetting that flop should be your play, since you are losing a ton of value and also give away free cards to draws if you don't cbet.
      I think the way you played the hand reps more AK-AQ, so with that midset villain could be valuebetting any Jx.
      I would expect them to bet a lot more with a straight on that turn.
      So yeah I am calling turn but river is going to be a really hard decision, since no card but an ace improves our equity.


      • #4
        Thanks guys, yeah makes sense. No need to give up the lead unnecessarily. Just puts us in awkward spots.
        Bracelet Winner


        • #5
          If we cbet flop, I would x/c turn and x/raise club rivers. Think it's a good spot for it.


          • #6
            Would need to be fairly confident villain can fold a straight though right? I see we're 200bb deep so I get what you're saying Birdayy.
            Bracelet Winner



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