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10nl zoom 6max, bad fold?

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  • 10nl zoom 6max, bad fold?

    Villain is 27/17 through 300hand sample with 2.6 3bet, 15% sqeeze through 13 samples (is this a squeeze?) Aggro factor 7.8, has c/raised a ton of flop cbets. cbet 82% in 17samples. I called pre to set mine as once i cap my range by flatting the 3bet i think villain in mp will squeeze QQ+/AK. It's a good flop and villain doesnt cbet. Very strange for a guy who's so aggresive. Then turn isn't a great card, i check again planning to c/call. River is a good card and i bet for value obviously, and the super aggro villain who's been passive the whole hand decides to jam? Should i be calling the river considering how high up in my range I am? Hard to range villain given the way the action went but I figured the guy very likely has queens here and have no idea if he would shove a straight. Surely he bets the turn with Ak? His passive line seemed really out of context with his tendencies and made me fold.
    Bracelet Winner

  • #2
    What's his 3B from MP? do you think he's CCing QQ and then re-opening the action? As played, I would be betting this turn 100%. The weird thing is that the aggressor Xs the flop and the turn and then jams the river...? Too me this looks like QQ, or JJ but I don't know if I can find a fold here.


    • #3
      0%'s only 4 combos though. I think i made a bad fold.
      Bracelet Winner


      • #4
        Taking a lil break from my studying and info organizing ... hope my comments sort of make sense

        This spot's maybe a bit like the hand bhoy posted yesterday, with a strong hand made with a paired board with 3 broadway cards, vs a reg? Like, one of those spots that are trickier than they might appear at the tables?

        In going through my thread tonight, I saw a hand of mine from a couple of weeks ago where I made a straight on the river of a board similar to this one, and auto-pilot-called the villain's donk bet like a whale ->

        If this villain's a reg, maybe he'd have just called with a straight (AK) as well, if that? Since TT and QQ would be in your range ... like, I wonder if maybe a lot of regs with AK might be worried that they're not beating anything that you'd call a 4-bet with, and bet the river with, into 2 ppl?

        So if he'd more likely have just call and not raise with AK, then guess that'd mean there's a really strong chance the villain likely has at least a boat? And it doesn't seem likely he'd 4-bet into 2ppl with 44, and you have TT, so ... maybe his most likely hand was QQ?

        His river bet was on the smallish side too ... like he wanted a call. And a lot of people would check QQ on that flop.

        Eager to hear other peoples' thoughts though - wouldn't be surprised if others see stuff I missed, which winds up changing my opinion on things.

        Okay, time to hit the books again
        Last edited by TrustySam; Wed May 28, 2014, 04:36 AM.


        • #5
          Hi Paddy,

          IMHO you should fold pre after the villain_5 4bet, we are not that deep to get the correct odds to set mine here. I can't put him on what range but I've seen ppl doing this with AK

          as played i think it's close, ofc he might have QQ and slowplay it to death but AJ and AK also in his value range, giving no action on 2 previous streets

          Might be a good fold but i'll call anyway, we only lose to QQ, although his play doesn't make much sense, why did he x turn with QQ? any A, K or diamond and his hand is gone, yeah i don't believe him


          • #6
            With him flatting such a wide range pre is there any chance of him 4 betting there to get both of you to fold pre with say QJs, lets say BU squeezes a ton and your flat it don't look very strong at all so it don't seem that bad of a plan to me it looks super strong.


            • #7
              In my opinion if I even come to this situation I would check call the river. As you play it I think you have to call the river because his line does not make any sense.
              But I am a fish so don't believe me


              • #8
                I was just thinking about this spot some more... I think if we call his river jam him we have to cross our fingers and pray that he has AK or 44... I really don't see anything else that this villain is taking this line with. So having said that I think that this is a good fold but I'm still not sure if I would be able to fold here or not.


                • #9
                  Hi Paddy Gar

                  There are two villains actually in this hand. And my first concern is V1 3betting vs an UTG raise and a MP cold call. The squeeze is actually coming from the BTN and not V5. But to use the squeeze stat we need to have a big sample specific for that stat. If there are 13 times when they squeezes then that does not tell us enough about their squeezing tendencies so I would just look at their 3bet stat. I'd like to know more about V1's stats before I consider calling 3bet from them in this particular spot and I think we can actually fold TT when we open from UTG and get 3bet.
                  V5 can call us with JJ-22 (sometimes QQ), AK, AQ, AJs, KQs - don't expect to see too many 3bets from MP vs UTG because ranges are tight. We do not have enough money behind to set mine. Typically I want to be able to win 15x or even more the bet when I'm OOP and set mining. So to call here we have to be calling if we think our hand beats or has some EV against their range.

                  Because V5 did not 3bet us preflop then I will rule out AA/KK. Actually there are no AA/KK in any one's range given how preflop played out. So V5 will have mostly {QQ/JJ, AK} - Again we are readless, who knows what villain can be doing
                  Although we made a set, this flop is actually not great for us because there are no AA/KK, we lose to QQ, and we cant get much value from JJ and AK. Villain's flop and turn check actually tells me they don't not have AK but slow played QQ and JJ are still valid in their range.

                  But really we have to be considering a fold when we first got 3bet from V1. Maybe give us more stats on both opponents.



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