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25NL ZOOM, OOP facing 3 barrels with 2 pair

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  • 25NL ZOOM, OOP facing 3 barrels with 2 pair

    CO: 23/19/12.0 ATS:22 - 75 hands BU: 17/13/12.0 3B:0.0 - 55 hands Calling this river?

  • #2
    He pots it on the river, which makes me feel kind of crappy about my hand, but there is still plenty we are beating.

    I'm only really concerned about top pair, sets and a better two pair here (Actually sounds like a decent amount now I say it). He seems aggressive enough post flop to just be barrelling but I guess sample size is an issue here, and if the stats are including this hand, then that will have inflated the aggression too.

    I think I am calling river. He can have 55/99 but I assume JJ 3bets pre-flop unless he figures to be a total nit. Again, he may have turned a set of 8's and was just betting flop because he was checked to IP but now has the best hand. Something like AQc KQc would make some sense to me as far as backdoor flush draws go. Given that his stat line suggests he can also have TPTK/TPGK type hands. I think I make the call and make a note whether I win the hand or not saying what he potted this river with. If it was a backdoored flush draw we can make an assumption in future that he pots it when he rivers the nuts.

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    • #3
      Sizing tell. I'd fold from an exploitative standpoint.

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      • #4
        Hi dirt,

        I agree with birdayy, fold for this sizing.

        Think about what our hand looks like at this point... our range is heavy in top pair hands. So a lot of Jx hands in the villains shoes are probably either betting smaller or checking down, save for AJ. But if AJ is the only reasonable hand that takes this line which we beat, then we have a pretty easy fold.

        Consider the stronger hands than ours which are in his range, and would play in this same manner from the preflop flat right through the large river bet: 55,99,JJ,88 for sure, but then there is also J9s, QTs, Ac/Kc/Qc/Tc+Jc, KcQc. That's a lot of combos... 23 by my count. If we also include all AJ combos then we are 23-12 to be losing here. And we can not even be sure he will take this line and sizing with AJ (but he certainly will with all the better hands), so the reality is probably worse. This seems like a good spot to make a disciplined fold.
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