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Gun Shy at 25NL

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  • Gun Shy at 25NL

    So it looks like I've lost my ability to value bet thinly at 25nl. This villain is unknown. Wasn't too sure if I'm supposed to be value betting this river or not. If we should be value betting what should we be betting? Should we be jamming here or betting about half the villains stack and folding if they jam? Thanks,
    Last edited by dirt eh; Wed May 14, 2014, 06:58 PM.

  • #2
    Interesting.

    I think the KJ hand you posted was similar. This guy would donk 7x/flushes on the river imo. Maybe not, but I still think there's value otr. Range is heavily worse kx/ j10/ 89 etc.

    I think the best way to look at this is to think in the long run how often a presumed rec player will call with worse otr. Doubt he's c/calling flop and turn with kx to fold it otr. Everytime you bet and he calls with worse (often enough to justify betting here imo) you're making x bb. Everytime you check and he shows up with worse you're missing out on xbb. Against a rec we want to max value in spots like this where we have the best hand a large percentage of the time.

    Too often I've checked back in spots like this without thinking and been very frustrated that I didnt vbet.

    The board is scarier now for villain so he might actually lay down some worse if you shove, bet/folding 1/3 pot would be my play.
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    • #3
      Above my range but still trying to make analyses.
      What hands would give value here? I can only think of K9, KT, 99, TT that might call a small bet.
      Other than that all hands that make sence, beat us, so I would actually be happy to get a showdown for free.

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      • #4
        Hi guys,


        Honestly I think checking back the river is fine here. And I'm a notorious thin value bettor. But I agree it's quite thin in this spot. Is it too thin? Probably, but who cares. By definition a thin value bet is only going to be slightly +EV if it's a good bet (slightly -EV if too thin), and this one may be so close enough to EV neutral that it's not a big concern one way or the other.

        Given that it seems close enough, I lean towards checking and showing down for 2 reasons:

        1) We have very limited reads, so it's just not clear how to proceed. The villain is very likely a fish, but we don't know what kind. It's not clear he will bet a flush or 88 given the strength we've shown. We can't rule out him getting tricky with these hands and chekcing the river to us. Nor can we assume he will stack himself off with KT-.

        2) Our hand strength is generally good for 2 streets of value, and fairs best in small and medium sized pots. Here we have alread put in 2 streets, and due to the preflop sizing and multi-way nature, the pot is now large as well. I'd really like to have a read that compels me to believe I can get a 3rd, very large street from enough worse hands before putting that final bet in.

        Originally posted by Paddy Gar View Post
        Everytime you check and he shows up with worse you're missing out on xbb.
        Not exactly. Remember, value betting isn't about having the best hand, it's about having the best hand when called. If the villain here is the type who will fold KT to our river barrel, then betting again would be a gigantic error. So there are certainly parts of his range that get to the river which won't call a final barrel. And the candidate hands of JhXh on blank rivers made their flush. So in this spot it's pretty thin for sure.
        Last edited by TheLangolier; Thu May 15, 2014, 03:47 AM.
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        • #5
          Makes perfect sense Dave.

          I don't know if Dirt is zooming here or on a reg table. I normally play zoom and as such work on slightly different terms to what you're saying in your post. Correct me if i'm wrong because I don't want to continue value owning myself

          The problem for me here is that in a zoom pool I may not see this rec player again. So i want to max value in all spots I'm in with him. I'll make the assumption pre that he'll limp call a bunch of worse k/qx, so instead of it being 2 streets of value with tp against a more competent player, I'm thinking 3streets of value versus this guy.

          Obviously you have to factor in board textures etc, but I'd lean towards the side of value betting the river on the assumption he isn't the type to fold k10 here. If he is well so be it, if he's tricky enough to raise my river bet well so be it too. I'll confidently fold the worst hand. The problem is if i check behind with the best hand I may never see the player again, so I can't use the info gained at showdown as well as at a reg table.

          Would it be fair to say that betting thinly here is slightly more plus ev in a large player pool than at a regular table as such? In my post i mentioned he has some j10, i was actually talking about gutshots otf which turned a pair, no flush.
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          • #6
            Vs a fish i'd err on the side of jamming for value.

            Vs a reg i wouldn't expect to get called by worse so i'd x back.

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            • #7
              Originally posted by Paddy Gar View Post
              The problem is if i check behind with the best hand I may never see the player again, so I can't use the info gained at showdown as well as at a reg table.

              Would it be fair to say that betting thinly here is slightly more plus ev in a large player pool than at a regular table as such? In my post i mentioned he has some j10, i was actually talking about gutshots otf which turned a pair, no flush.
              Betting isn't more or less EV based on player pool.

              I think that Jx is not going to be calling us down for 3 barrels in a big pot, even in the hands of many fish-types (with a calling station being the notable exception).

              I'll admit I don't really track with the fear that you won't see the guy again in Zoom. If the play is close to EV neutral, then I'd say let's take the information route... the truth is we will likely see this guy again, but not the next hand, and our sample size with him may be limited (at least in this session), so the quicker we can get information on what kind of fish he is, the better positioned we'll be to capitalize on it. If we bet and he folds, we don't know if he was stationing 2 streets with 33, or making a disciplined fold with Kx. If we check, we will see exactly what he limp/called with pre, and check/called 2 streets with, and that could provide us with a ton of insight into how to exploit this guy in the future when we do run into him. tbh it is probably even worth giving up a very small +EV bet to get this information right now, given the nature of zoom, so I think an argument can be made to pass the thinnest of thin value bets here on the premise that the information of guaranteeing we see his hand may be more valuable and the nature of zoom/possible limited exposure to the fish creates some urgency to get this information quickly. We don't want to pass up clearly good bets obviously, but 1-2c of EV is a fair price to pay perhaps... especially when it's not even clear the bet would be +EV.

              Lastly, I would again encourage to not obsess over spots that are largely EV neutral. I think we all recognize that this is a thin spot, and that's the important question, is it very thin? Yes. Is it too thin (i.e. -EV)? Maybe. It's good to have a look at it, but don't focus too much time here. I pulled a quote from GodLikeRoy in response to a PLO spot posted by Gareth a while back, that says it very nicely:

              Originally posted by GodlikeRoy
              I would be looking to work on parts of your game that aren't spots like these. When a spot like this comes up, spend a couple of minutes on it, then move on. Realise that you won't be making or losing much money on the spot and put it to the back of the queue. Perhaps when your game is near perfect and there is nowhere else for you to gain an edge, you can find the optimal play in this spot. Until then....trust your gut and feel comfort in knowing that neither decision is that bad (nor that good).
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              • #8
                Point duly noted! Cheers Dave.
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