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25NL ZOOM, flopped bottom set vs. XR OTT

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  • 25NL ZOOM, flopped bottom set vs. XR OTT

    BB(111): 18/14/2.6 BET/FOLD the turn as played?

  • #2
    I dunno if I am folding on the turn.

    What do we think he has?

    55, KK, A4, 64?

    If they are the only hands we can give him then I agree with a fold.

    Comment


    • #3
      I think its a good fold if he can have 55 otherwise your priced in near enough, doubt he is ever bluffing so i gave him straights and 55 on the turn.

      Comment


      • #4
        only open 33 utg if you've the discipline to fold here. WP imo. I think villain has 55 here or A4dd/64dd all the time.

        I take it you've never seen this villain bluff raise versus strength? Or do anything to suggest this could be a call/shove?

        Fact is you've raised utg, pot bet the flop MW, so bet/folding has to be the play here imo.



        Bhoy villain can't have KK.
        Bracelet Winner

        Comment


        • #5
          What stats do you use on your hud? I'd like to see the following: Hands on villain ; fold to steal ; fold to flop bet ( c bet); wtsd ; w$sd ; c/raise turn; turn aggression.
          I think that'll do.

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by Paddy Gar View Post

            Bhoy villain can't have KK.
            He shouldn't have it.

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by awmm83 View Post
              What stats do you use on your hud? I'd like to see the following: Hands on villain ; fold to steal ; fold to flop bet ( c bet); wtsd ; w$sd ; c/raise turn; turn aggression.
              I think that'll do.
              Fold to steal is irrelevant here as the OR came from UTG.

              BB was likely calling due to pot odds/perceived implied odds or as a set-mine rather than as standard blind defense.

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by awmm83 View Post
                What stats do you use on your hud? I'd like to see the following: Hands on villain ; fold to steal ; fold to flop bet ( c bet); wtsd ; w$sd ; c/raise turn; turn aggression.
                I think that'll do.
                I'm not stealing so I won't give you that. Note that I only have 113 hands on this villain. Not enough hands to look at PostF stats imo.

                Here you go...

                Hands: 113
                Fold to CB: 25 on 4 samples
                WTSD%: 36 on 11 samples
                W$SD%: 75 on 4 samples
                Turn Agg%: 57 on 7 samples

                Here's a stat that will help a lot more:
                CC in the BB: 8 on 13 samples
                Last edited by dirt eh; Tue May 13, 2014, 01:15 AM.

                Comment


                • #9
                  3 out of 4 w$sd is a worrying pattern for now. On the CCBB , were there a lot of MW pots? Might just be unable to resist silly pot odds if everyone is in.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    I think fold to steal gives me an idea of their tendencies from the blinds regardless of where i open from. They're still in the blinds. It helps profile villain. The stats i asked for were all for profile building.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by awmm83 View Post
                      I think fold to steal gives me an idea of their tendencies from the blinds regardless of where i open from. They're still in the blinds. It helps profile villain. The stats i asked for were all for profile building.
                      Here's my HUD layout:
                      Player / Hands / VPIP / PFR / Total AF / Fold to Steal / ATS
                      Fold to PF 3Bet After Raising / Fold to PF 4Bet After 3Bet / 3Bet Preflop / 4Bet + Ratio
                      Fold to Flop CBet / Fold to Turn CBet / Fold to River CBet
                      CBet Flop / CBet Turn / CBet River
                      Fold to Raise After F CBet / Fold to Raise After T CBet / Fold to T Float Bet / Fold to R Float Bet

                      Note: You're looking into this too much. I gave you basic stats and you can profile build off of them!

                      Hands: 113 VP:17 PF:14 AG:2.6 FST:80 ST:24
                      3B:4.5
                      WTSD:36

                      The stats above are the only stats that have a decent enough sample size to use. You should be able to tell that this player is a TIT player (TAG/NIT), just by looking at the 17/14/2.6

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        You initially didn't tell me how many hands you had on villain . Only the trinity. Hence i asked for more details. Can't see the big deal to be honest.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          I don't have the discapline to fold here but it's probably a good fold given he's a nit.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Villain here looks so much more reggy and controlled than the one in bhoy's hand - with those stats, the 400bb stack ... also that mini-bet on the turn was still big enough to get stacks in by the river without raising any red flags.

                            And here, the villain would have been able to exclude KK from dirt eh's range, because you didn't size your bet on the turn to get stacks in the middle by the river. Guess there aren't a lot of combos of 55 and Ad 4d, but ... not sure what else the bb would be re-raising the turn with? If someone were going to risk getting re-raised with a combo draw, the villain could have done that on the flop when the odds were a lot better, rather than wait until the turn to bet so small after dirt eh's bet so big, on two streets, into 4 people on the flop?


                            Is the 33 here maybe very similar to the KK of bhoy's? Either in okay shape, or very behind, such that a fold could never be wrong?

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              At first I felt like folding turn could be a big mistake, but given that the pot was 4-way and your range looks very strong here I doubt we are facing raises with worse here. Not sure if a tighter villain like that overcalls Kxs in the BB, so we're pretty much left with straights and 55. Can't even come up with many semibluffs that wouldn't already raise flop instead. We could call and call any boardpairing river (5 would be best lol), but the more I think about it the more I like laying this one down.
                              Live Trainer



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