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Can my read be good enough to fold in monster pot?

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  • Can my read be good enough to fold in monster pot?

    Can my read ever be good enough to fold to the river bet? Pre-flop: I try to isolate a loose-average limper but get a lot more action than I bargained for. Flop: I considered raising this bet but didn't want to get blasted out of the pot when I had a strong draw. So I called. Turn: The turn gave me a big combo draw that I wasn't going to let through with another micro bet. So I made a large re-raise while I had fold equity and real. River: NICE! I hit one of my draws and bet for value. Oh, The loose-passive just shoved on me. His stats are over 42 hands 24/17/ with 0.3 agro. At that point I am sure that this player has the goods and his goods are more than likely better than mine. But what do I do? I'm getting 5:1 odds and I'm holding the Ten high flush on a none paired bored. But this guy is NEVER bluffing. What to do? How to play differently?

  • #2
    You should have raised the flop . You are representing Aces and we have equity! Well , pretend you are. By now maybe someneones mucked. The turn , I would push all in . You have 30% chance of hitting . Anyone decent with TP will fold.Anyone with the nut flush will fold.
    Here's an equation I learned from easy game. Pot equity+ fold equity = Bet. Now if the villains are lagtards I
    probably wouldn't pull that off on the turn
    Oh and preflop always hit pot. Pot Pot Pot! Price the button out!

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    • #3
      I disagree with awmm83.

      As played I would shove the river. you have less than a pot sized bet OTR so the best play is to shove.

      Here's how I play the hand.

      PF: Iso is fine. No need to pot it. 0.08 or 0.10 is good. We want to try NOT to use bet buttons as they become tells pretty fast.
      OTF: Multiway (5 players see the flop) I think a call is fine. We can elect to raise but we're against 4 players, so raising here looks really strong. Not a good idea vs. 4 players.
      OTT: I like to just call here. By raising we're not accomplishing anything. NOTE: this is 2nl, anyone with 2 hearts, 2 pair, sets, top here is never folding. ALSO THIS IS MULTIWAY!!! The way the action has gone I would only raise if I had a straight or sets here and I would be POTTING it now.
      OTR: Now that we've controlled the size of the pot we can BET/FOLD for value.

      Comment


      • #4
        Hey guys,

        You do realize if hero pots it preflop that's a raise to .09c. He's made it .08c, it really doesn't make a big difference (nor would .10c).

        On the flop I like just calling, on the turn, I think we can reasonably go either way with it, our draw is so strong and no one's shown any strength.

        On the river, I would have moved in personally since the money left in play is only 80% pot. Don't really think we can raise/fold any reasonable amount with this hand strength.
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