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NL10- top set facing river check-shove

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  • NL10- top set facing river check-shove

    Poker Stars, $0.05/$0.10, $0.02 ante No Limit Hold'em Cash, 5 Players Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. BTN: $12.13 (121.3 bb) SB: $35.51 (355.1 bb) BB: $12.23 (122.3 bb) Hero (MP): $10.18 (101.8 bb) CO: $12.37 (123.7 bb) Preflop: Hero is MP with T T Hero raises to $0.30, 3 folds, BB calls $0.20 Flop: ($0.75) 6 2 7 (2 players) BB checks, Hero bets $0.50, BB calls $0.50 Turn: ($1.75) T (2 players) BB checks, Hero bets $1.20, BB calls $1.20 River: ($4.15) 4 (2 players) BB checks, Hero bets $2, BB raises to $8.30, Hero calls $6.16 and is all-in Results:

    $20.47 pot ($0.92 rake) Final Board: 6 2 7 T 4 BB showed 8 A and won $19.55 ($9.37 net) Hero showed T T and lost (-$10.18 net) [/spoiler] So I actually planned to bet fold the river thinking he wont shove with a non flush hand. What do you guys think of the call? VIllain 50/24/8.3 AF of 4.0 over 208 hands.

  • #2
    Depends if he value jams sets.

    I think game theory wise we can't fold this far up in our range.

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    • #3
      This is a heavily read-based decision.

      As a default vs an unknown at 10NL, I'd be inclined to fold vs this action as it screams value and looks super-strong.

      However the stats you posted on this guy do seem to indicate that he might be willing to pull off a big river bluff or make a thin value shove with a worse set, although I would imagine that worse sets might have made themselves known to you at some earlier point in the hand.

      You have to make a judgment call if this particular villain is capable of bluff check/raising this river at least 1/3 of the time. Knowing some river aggression stats might help with this judgment but you may not have enough of a sample size to make any river stats relevant with only 208 hands on villain.

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