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AKo / Fold on the turn

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  • AKo / Fold on the turn

    Hi, Here is a hand I recently played in 0.01 / 0.02 Note: Opp is someone who limps behind and open-limps with hands such as Q6s. Don't have note on his post-flop game. I really didn't pay attention to his overbet, as if I had, It would have been easier to let it go. But I'm not sure if in 0.01/0.02 people wouldn't overbet as a desperate bluff
    Last edited by shynleigh355; Mon Apr 28, 2014, 06:57 AM.
    Double Bracelet Winner


  • #2
    ** moved to Basic Poker Hand Discussions **
    2 Time Bracelet Winner


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    • #3
      Hi!

      First of all, always try to have auto top-up set so you are playing with a full stack, you want don't want to miss out on those juicy chips when fish do crazy stuff as often happens at these stakes!

      I like the preflop sizing, punish those limpers and get strong value from what's almost certainly the strongest hand at this point.

      This flop is pretty wet and a typical limp/caller might easily have a very strong hand or a strong draw here. To try and get max value from their draws, I'd bet quite large on this flop, something like $0.22 looks quite good, as if the flush/straight doesn't come in, you might only get two streets of value on the flop and turn.

      Obviously the turn isn't great, but there are plenty of other hands other than flushes that he can have, e.g. worse Kx, T9, 65 that we can still get value from. Also, we have the Ac which is quite significant because while giving us the nut flush draw, it also means that villain can't have been on the nut flush draw, which makes it slightly less likely that he was actually on the flush draw.

      I'd continue to bet on this turn and fold to a large raise, but probably call a min-raise due to the flush outs we have.

      The problem with checking is that you're now in a guessing game when villain bombs the turn. Is he bluffing after we showed weakness? Who knows?

      Typically when villains bet huge like this, it's because they like their hand. It might be with two pair and they bet big to "protect" or maybe with the flush. You're not getting the right odds to draw to a flush or better two pair, so I'd just fold.

      And I'd certainly fold to this river bet, you're now only beating a bluff. The chances of him bluffing are not zero, but he's certainly not bluffing often enough (27% of the time) to make a call profitable in the long run.

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      • #4
        Hi, thanks for answering. I see my mistakes now. You said that the chances he could have a bluff here would be 27%. Is there somehow I can get and idea of that on the middle of the hand? I knew there was a chance he could bluff but could not have any idea of how likely while playing.
        Double Bracelet Winner

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        • #5
          Here, that´s a hand I just played and I think it illustrates my dilema lol I often enough find myself making very bad folds and very bad calls, and it's been costing a great part of my bankroll. I've not been making much money, I am almost even in long run. Can you guys give me some help. I am actually only posting this hand together because it is connected with my reasoning from previous hand
          Double Bracelet Winner

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          • #6
            Originally posted by shynleigh355 View Post
            You said that the chances he could have a bluff here would be 27%. Is there somehow I can get and idea of that on the middle of the hand? I knew there was a chance he could bluff but could not have any idea of how likely while playing.
            I probably didn't explain myself that clearly.

            The 27% refers pot odds you are getting on a call. Because you are only beating a bluff, villain has to be bluffing at least this amount in order for a call to be profitable.

            I don't think villain is bluffing 27% of the time or more, so I'd just fold the river.

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            • #7
              HI shynleigh355,

              I think with that second hand you need to neglect that villain made a small donk bet and bet at least 2/3 pot; the reason for this is that you 3bet preflop, and so are now representing an Axhigh, or KK hand. If you are called then I would be giving up. I have done this before and I believe you would more often than not get a fold, because villains are looking to seet the showdown cheaply hoping that there weak made hand is the best hand.

              I guess the situation becomes slighlty more problematic when the pot is multiway, but at least you will then know that viliains like their hands, and that your KKs now don't look that great.

              Cheers,

              Matt
              Last edited by pullin1988; Tue Apr 29, 2014, 03:55 PM.

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