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10NL Zoom 98s in 3bet pot vs suspected nit flop OESD

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  • 10NL Zoom 98s in 3bet pot vs suspected nit flop OESD

    Ummm, I kind of hate this hand, so I am posting it as punishment. Villain is 13/10 over 40 hands and this is his first 3bet out of 14 opportunities. I think the open is fine, and, because of position I think I can excuse the call due to the possibility of flopping well, having position and money already invested. On the flop, with the OESD, I didn't want to get into an all-in situation so I just called with 8 outs and two streets to hit. On the turn, he sticks out another pretty big bet, I think I should fold, but I make the call again. River, I hit a pair and it is checked to me, now, I can take my showdown value but in the moment I thought I was probably still behind. A couple of straight draws came in but how likely are they to the villain? Not very in my estimation. I elected to shove because I didn't think my showdown value was sufficient. I think I should have given up on the turn and, as played, I should just check back. Thoughts?
    Last edited by bhoylegend; Sun Apr 27, 2014, 11:16 PM.

  • #2
    Hi,

    I don't mind the open either, but w/ nitty stats like his I think a button min raise is sufficient. His 3bet is quite large, and his 3bet frequency so far is only 1/14 or 7.14%. (Or is it 1/15?) I haven't run the numbers but I don't think 98cc does well against such a large 3bet from the BB. So I think I might fold this preflop.

    He can have stuff like TT-AA- 24 combos, AK- 16combos, AQ- say 7 combos, and 66 say 1 combo. He may also have some combos of AJ, AT, KQ, QJs, QTs, and JTs maybe, these kind of hands.

    Your Queen outs could be dead versus his AK combos, and with his flopped sets he has redraws versus any straights you may make, so this flop is not as good as it seems. You have backdoor club outs only.

    I could be wrong but as played on the flop I think I am either raising or folding. Nothing he has done so far in the hand indicates weakness; so if you miss the turn what is your plan? You could call flop intending to bluff raise allin on the turn when you miss- I don't like the turn call.

    The river is tricky with his check. I think he is checking much of the time with showdown value that is beating you, and with his missed KQs, AQ, and AK hands. He may also be trapping. Nasty spot.
    Last edited by rule110; Mon Apr 28, 2014, 11:12 AM.

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    • #3
      OTR: What would this villain be folding? He's not folding TP or better ever IMO

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      • #4
        I'm not sure what you are repping on the river other than a rivered set of eights, or a slowplayed set on the flop. I don't think you can represent a straight on this board very easily given you would have to have called the large preflop 3bet on the button w/ Q9s or 97s specifically, while these hands could very well be included in his 3bet/fold range. Maybe you have two pair here w/ JT occasionally...

        IDK, maybe you can get hands like ATs, AK, AQ, KTs and QTs to fold here, but I think he may stubbornly call some percentage of the time with these and given his odds on a river call I think you will be losing to his range here.
        Last edited by rule110; Mon Apr 28, 2014, 08:35 AM.

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        • #5
          I did say that I don't really think I can rep straight draws. That's part of the reason I think river is spewy.

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          • #6
            I would say he is more likely than you are to have them in his perceived range, unless you have info (other than his 1/14 3bet ratio) which leads you to reason otherwise. He may 3bet from the BB w/ a wider range, or more often as a bluff versus someone opening his BB for the first time. You cannot know. The point is that your lack of information is why you asking how likely 97 or Q9 are to be in your perceived 3b calling range in position.

            You basically have no information on his 3betting tendencies, yet you come to the conclusion that he will think it "not very" likely that you have the nuts and then you decide to shove the river HOPING he folds better or calls with A high or something; because you can't see how you could win any other way.

            TBH i don't really hate your river shove. He has checked to you (having you covered and you with only a half pot bet left) which isn't very strong. I can see him playing some hands this way, and sometimes he'll fold them. The question is- will he fold enough of the time to not make your river shove a mistake?
            Last edited by rule110; Wed Apr 30, 2014, 10:06 AM.

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            • #7
              Well, there's a significant difference in what was going through my head at the time I was playing and when I then looked at it in the cold light of day. Which is when I came to the conclusion that it would likely be unlikely for me to have held hands that revered a straight.

              I obviously don't know what his perception of me is. We've played 40 hands and he has been folding most of the time where I have been more active. So he might perceived e me quite differently than I think.

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              • #8
                That's true He may well have put you on the nuts and folded! What happened? the suspense!
                Last edited by rule110; Mon Apr 28, 2014, 11:37 AM.

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                • #9
                  Hi bhoy,

                  I think the preflop call is dubious tbh. We don't have enough read here to be clear where our profit is coming from, but my best guess is that it's not from "hitting a hand" as this guy doesn't seem like a good payoff candidate. It probably is coming mostly from using position to take pots away when he misses or when the board is scary. Again though with only 40 hands of data and no observed hands, we have no way to really know. So I feel like calling this size 3b is a small leak.

                  Flop play is fine, turn I agree with you it's just a fold when he fires a 2nd big barrel.

                  River bet I really don't like. The only hands I see folding are worse hands. I don't think a nitty guy is hero calling AK high, if he even double barrels it. It may not be fair to call him a nit over 40 hands, maybe he's just been card dead. But based on everything we've seen, tighter at least. And this is a classic spot that tighter players check/call the river as they routinely miss river value bets. I think the optimal play here is to just show it down and hope he has AK.
                  Last edited by TheLangolier; Mon Apr 28, 2014, 05:48 PM.
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                  • #10
                    Thanks everyone for the comments.

                    Dave, I totally agree at pretty much every point, pre-flop was marginal at best but I was probably getting carried away because I had been on something of a heater at that point and felt I was capable of hitting any flop. A case of 'positive' tilt. I would like to think I would have folded it SB to BB though as OOP it would have been really criminal.

                    Flop was the only street that I was happy with in review.

                    Turn, I hate it now, and the stupid thing is I didn't like it before I clicked the button.

                    River, I play stacked tables, and have a program which gives a running total on the session at the right of my screen. When I hit the button to shove, I immediately thought it was horrible and that I deserved to lose the stack, waiting for confirmation of the fact I looked to the counter on the right of my screen and saw that he folded. I immediately said aloud 'Holy ***expletive removed***, he folded' which pretty much says everything.

                    I started off by saying it and I will repeat it again, I hate this hand, the fact he folded doesn't make me feel one bit better about it. I deserved to be stacked.

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                    • #11
                      Yep, exactly, and good recognition imo. umbup: I have seen other posters put up a hand like this to pat themselves on the back because he folded, but the truth is in all likelihood he simply folded a worse hand (AK/AQ)
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