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NL10 - Turning a 2nd pair into a bluff on river

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  • NL10 - Turning a 2nd pair into a bluff on river

    Poker Stars, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. MP: $10.10 (101 bb) Hero (CO): $10.63 (106.3 bb) BTN: $12.80 (128 bb) SB: $7.80 (78 bb) BB: $17.31 (173.1 bb) UTG: $12.67 (126.7 bb) Preflop: Hero is CO with J Q UTG raises to $0.30, MP folds, Hero calls $0.30, BTN calls $0.30, 2 folds Flop: ($1.05) J 2 7 (3 players) UTG bets $0.60, Hero calls $0.60, BTN folds Turn: ($2.25) 5 (2 players) UTG bets $1.90, Hero calls $1.90 River: ($6.05) K (2 players) UTG bets $2.90, Hero raises to $7.83, UTG folds Results:

    $11.85 pot ($0.53 rake) Final Board: J 2 7 5 K Hero mucked J Q and won $11.32 ($5.62 net) UTG mucked and lost (-$5.70 net)es [/spoiler] Villain is very aggressive 30/26/12.7 with an AF of 6 over 159 hands so I call the turn, even though his sizing is pretty large. River is a pretty interesting spot, I think he has a pretty strong range, I think he could have a lot of KX that bluffed flop and turn, I assume he is checking any QX except AK, and he could also have sets and flushes. However I can also see this player having some crazy hand and trying to put me off a queen on this river as its an overcard and completes the flush, but this is also a great card to bluff-raise because he can't call without a flush and my range is mainly QX and flush draws by the river. So was a pretty interesting spot as calling, raising and folding all have their merits.

  • #2
    PF: I don't like the call in the CO. I would call with QJs on the BTN but not the CO.

    OTR: I guess it's ok. What are the villains tbet and rbet stats? Do we have enough evidence that they will lay down over pairs? The villains range looks like QQ+ here tbh. I guess I like raising better than calling in this spot, but I also think it's ok and probably best to fold OTR.

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    • #3
      I like the river shove.

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      • #4
        Hi pocket,

        I'm not a big fan of the river raise tbh. You are turning your hand into a bluff and I do agree it's not a bad card to bluff at, but I'm not sure it's necessary here or that it makes more money than simply calling. In part because of his very aggro stat line, I agree with what you said here:

        I can also see this player having some crazy hand and trying to put me off a queen on this river as its an overcard and completes the flush
        Anything in this category, we already beat, so raising accomplishes nothing against these hands.

        So what better hands are we targeting? QQ/AJ are the primary targets, but we aren't even sure if he'll fold those. Kx+ is the real question mark... if he will fold KQ/AK/AA we can do some math to see if the shove is +EV or not. If he will not fold any of these hands, I think it's not even close, given the level of showdown value we have in just calling this spot. My best guess is that he's not bet/folding a king or better. At least, when I've made similar plays vs. over-aggro guys at like 25nl, they call with QQ or AJ and snap me off. lol
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        • #5
          Nah I don't like this vs UTG.

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          • #6
            Im targeting KX 2 pair and sets pretty much, I think he will fold all these. Some players are super aggressive and also call really wide but others can be spewy but also know where the fold button is lol. I find the former usually to be 1 tabling fish but this guy was a reg so I think I had a lot of fold equity against that range.

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            • #7
              Hi pocket,

              Well we can agree to disagree on whether or not he's folding hands as strong as KK to the shove. But I think it makes an interesting math problem for homework then... you are saying he is only calling with flushes, so start with what his range of hands is to raise pre UTG then 3-barrel this spot. Out of that range, take all the hands better than ours, and see if he's folding or calling more to our shove. It's important to be fair and I recommend even conservative in our ranging here... for instance, is it fair to say he's folding AJ to our shove and that's 8 combos right there? Not really. He may not bet the river with AJ 100% of the time. And, he may not fold it 100% of the time either... like when he holds the ace of clubs, he may get suspicious if we're repping a flush when the ace, king, and jack of the flush suit are accounted for.

              There's subjectivity in analyzing spots like this so start conservatively (like saying he checks the river with all 1 pair hands, and only bets 2 pair+)... then you can adjust it for added factors, like what if he bet/folds AK/AA with no club and bet/calls with the Ac? What if he calls with KK/JJ? Etc.
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