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Fold or Call?

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  • Fold or Call?

    I have no HUD stats for the villain. I have only seen him play one other hand and he folded it pre-flop. I won't describe the hand because you can watch it over. The basic question could I and should I have folded when he pushed ALL-IN on the turn? Could I have played the hand differently to avoid this spot? [I've tried to cut the replay before the hands are showdown forgive me if I messed it up and any information on how to do it right would be appreciated.]

  • #2
    He should not have 88 or A4 or 44 in his range, but just in case one combo 88 for him. KK he would have probably 4betted, lets give him only one KK combo too.

    Hands you lose {JJ,AA,8h8d,KhKd}

    Hands you win/draw {AcKc,QQ,AhJx,Ac2c} <- so he bets TPTK 3 combos out of 12, Ac2c is also a bluff component

    You have 30% equity, and 31% pot odds.

    Combining this to the fact that small size is at 2NL either weak or AA. If he is weak, he would not bet AI OTT (at least not without lucking out), so his range is value heavy. -> this is fold OTT.

    I wouldn’t fold though but usually folding TPTK or OP to heavy action on dry board saves you some money.
    Last edited by braveslice; Sun Apr 27, 2014, 03:13 AM.

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    • #3
      Originally posted by braveslice View Post
      He should not have 88 or A4 or 44 in his range, but just in case one combo 88 for him. KK he would have probably 4betted, lets give him only one KK combo too.

      Hands you lose {JJ,AA,8h8d,KhKd}

      Hands you win/draw {AcKc,QQ,AhJx,Ac2c} <- so he bets TPTK 3 combos out of 12, Ac2c is also a bluff component

      You have 30% equity, and 31% pot odds.

      Combining this to the fact that small size is at 2NL either weak or AA. If he is weak, he would not bet AI OTT (at least not without lucking out), so his range is value heavy. -> this is fold OTT.

      I wouldn’t fold though but usually folding TPTK or OP to heavy action on dry board saves you some money.
      You reasoned much as I did. If I'd had more information on the player, like a decent AF, I known him to be passive I might have folded. My concern was that I might be folding to a AJs or Ax clubs.

      I reasoned that after the pre-flop action 88 was improbable and x4 unlikely. When I called I was expecting either Jacks full, the nut club draw. But I thought equally likely a jack with a strong kicker.

      I have notes on this guy now and will tend to fold this spot in future.

      Just for information. He was holding A4 off suit. The river was another jack and he took the pot with his full house.

      Comment


      • #4
        I'd fold to this turn action, this line is pretty much only done with very strong hands, especially as he can't expect you to fold that often due to the pot odds you're getting. So I'd expect to see mainly 88, JJ or some A4/54 that villain decided to call preflop OOP. There's also a chance he's springing the trap with a slowplayed AA.

        I think another significant issue in this hand is your choice of sizing on the flop and turn. You'd like to bet-bet-bet and get it in on the river until you hear otherwise. With the sizing you took on flop and turn, if villain would have called, villain would've only been left with $1.11 behind with a pot of $2.01.

        Therefore if you went a bit smaller on flop and turn, you could still get a river shove but get away more cheaply in instances like this where your opponent shows significant interest. My sizings would be:

        Flop (Pot = $0.33) - Bet 0.20, Villain Calls (Stack behind = $1.75)

        Turn (Pot = $0.73) - Bet 0.45, Villain Calls (Stack behind = $1.30)

        River (Pot = $1.63) - This allows you to still shove with less than a pot sized bet and saves you $0.19 (9.5BB) when villain pulls out the line that he made in the hand.

        Comment


        • #5
          There's a couple of great video series in the archives that I'd recommend watching about this topic:

          xflixx - The Art of Betsizing Part 1

          xflixx - The Art of Betsizing Part 2

          TheLangolier - Stack to Pot Ratios Part 1

          TheLangolier - Stack to Pot Ratios Part 2

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