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10NL 99 facing donk on J high board rivered set on 3 flush

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  • 10NL 99 facing donk on J high board rivered set on 3 flush

    Hand played this morning. 15 hands on villain, seems weak so far, 20/7 and AGf of 1.0 but sample size issues figure into some of those stats. Pre is standard, flop, I am not ready to believe he has smashed this board and is leading out for value, he can have draws, TP and other medium pairs that are thinking I missed this board. Turn, his bet is so weak, that I still don't place him on a value hand, so I don't want to fold yet. River, I hit a set, but it brings the spade draw in and he suddenly leads out for PSB. Are we good often enough here to make this a profitable call?

  • #2
    River is a fold tbh. Other than that I'm not folding to the small Donkbets. River sucks because now we have a set but the bet sizing is really big compared to the Flop, and Turn bets. I would put this villain on 67 of spades or Ax of spades.

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    • #3
      Pre. flop and turn I play the same. Villain can be leading tons of worse hands and gives us a great price.

      I wouldn't expect anyone to bet a jack, two pair or a set that big when the flush hits on the river. This makes villain's potential range look very polarized between flushes and bluffs. In order to have the latter he would probably need to be turning made hands into bluffs which I don't expect from weaker microstakes opponents. That being said I would be likely to fold river unless my spidey senses are tickling^^
      Live Trainer



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      • #4
        With that action I put him on broadway spades like KQ, KT, QT, AK, AQ, AT -
        If it were me with a low suited connector, I might put out a bet on the flop but would be doing so to buy a free card on the turn, the only way I am comfortable betting into the PRF would be if i had a combo such as overs like AK-AJ, hey maybe even a pair already hit.

        The difference between the turn bet and the river bet makes me feel he was weak to that point but the river changed something for him and he all of a sudden wanted to recover the value he lost on the turn.

        Just don't think he is bluffing with that kind of bet.

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