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5NL zoom AKo oop. Over or under played?

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  • 5NL zoom AKo oop. Over or under played?

    Villain playing 19/15 over 395 3bet 5.1 agg 2.1 i think pre flop is standard I 3bet a co open from the blinds with my value range. Get called I put AA and KK to the back of his range here as I have blockers and he doesn't 4bet. Obv can be slow playing but just less likely. JJ- QQ, suited connectors, small pocket pairs and Broadway is what I have him on. I brick the flop, I could lead but dont want a x/r as I have 2 overs and backdoor nut flush. He bets more than I like but if an Ace or King is good he is offering me pot odds to call. Turn is a good card for me. Gives me a gutter and a 4 flush. He bets 1.52 with 2.24 behind. I have immediate odds to call (just) but I also feel I have the option to x/r all in??? My question is what should I do given his turn bet? open shuv/ fold/ x/raise all in? If his range is overpairs w no heart and overpairs with 1 heart does he ever fold here to a shuv? Flush is possible from his betting pattern imo but he never folds that. I dont think a set folds here either? So... what do I do? please help?

    I just called and river bricked the 9 of diamonds. I checked and he shuved. I folded [/spoiler]

  • #2
    OTF: I think you (or me) have it backwards. Because you have outs, you should Cbet, to fold out Ax hands.

    OTT: Because you did not cbet, the probability you having flush now is really small. V having flush is also not very likely, maybe KhQh, thus is most likely hands are TT,JJ,QQ. So would he fold those? Maybe.

    Shove equity (my first):

    Villains range {KhQh,TT,JJ,QQ,88} , combi=1+18+3 = 22
    Assumption he folds TT -> villain folds 6/22 = 27% of time
    When he calls, villain has 66% equity.
    Villain wins: 0.73*0.66 = 0.48
    Villain loses: 0.73*0.34 = 0.25
    EV shoving = (0.22*4.09)+(0.25*6.33) – (0.48*3.76) = 0.7$

    Shoving can’t be that bad. Even though I don’t trust my calculations at all.
    Last edited by braveslice; Thu Apr 24, 2014, 03:48 PM.

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    • #3
      Even if your calculation was right villain is never folding an over pair now, not with the line that hero would of took anyway it makes no sense.

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      • #4
        With AK from the blinds, I'd 3-bet preflop too. I'm out of position and want the initiative in the hand.

        Due to the 3-bet pre, I'm also going to lead the flop here. I can get value from the opp and also find out more about their range. By checking, I have absolutely no clue if I'm ahead or behind, so I have no idea whether to call/raise/fold.
        Checking here also opens me up to being bluffed, as the opp can bet ATC and I have no clue whether I'm ahead or not.

        I can't call this flop bet, as I need to have about 30% hand equity in order to call. If the opp has any pair, I have 6 outs for 12%... IF.. all my outs are even good (opp could easily have Ax with a pair and have some of my outs counterfeited).

        On the turn, the opp is most likely not folding a pair, with or without a heart to a c/r. I'd either lead again (after leading the flop). The problem with checking is that if the opp bets again, I can only call if my hand equity is high enough (and any sizable bet prices me out, especially one this large).

        The key for me is the flop. I'm going to lead, but if I did check, I cannot call this bet, as my hand does not have the equity to do so.

        John (JWK24)
        Super-Moderator



        6 Time Bracelet Winner


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        • #5
          Yeah, I think you have to either bet-fold or check-fold the flop. Floating OOP with a maximum of 6 outs (plus the BDFD) in a 3-bet pot isn't going to be profitable.
          I'd usually check-fold tbh, as villain will show up with a set or overpair very often and he's not folding either, so you'd be firing money into the abyss. You'd have more fold equity with a c-bet on boards containing a Broadway card, as that's often enough to scare a villain off a small/medium pair.
          Bracelet Winner

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