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50nl - Bottom set facing donk shove OTR

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  • 50nl - Bottom set facing donk shove OTR

    Stats Player6 ( $71.18 USD ) - VPIP: 22, PFR: 18, 3B: 12, AF: 2.8, Hands: 120 Player1 ( $104.03 USD ) - VPIP: 44, PFR: 16, 3B: 7, AF: 1.3, Hands: 79 I hate it when this happens.

  • #2
    I think I call. Nothing completed. I don't think they have a set. A set should have raised or bet for protection OTT. Only hand that I can see they might have slow played is 86 or hearts, which doesn't really fit into their CC range from MP.


    • #3
      I think I call too here, not sure if it is correct or not though.

      I think he is doing this often enough with missed draws/bluffs.

      No idea what his actual hand strength is when he takes this line but we are ahead of a lot of hands that might feel the need to bluff in order to win the pot or some two pair that thinks this is for value. Having said that, villain one doesnt exactly look too aggressive.....


      • #4
        He does look abit loose though and these players slow play a ton and that 2 cant give him any worse hand like some pair + draw that rivered two pair where he is stupid enough to donk shove all in.


        • #5
          Why would he slow play in dangerous board, and then shove when you miss?



          • #6
            Originally posted by braveslice View Post
            Why would he slow play in dangerous board, and then shove when you miss?

            Exactly but you cant tell me these players dont do it, to call the river he has to show a bluff or a worse hand to call, so seen as everyone is eliminating all slow plays he isnt going to donk shove flopped or turned two pair, so he has to turn a pair + draw into a bluff or a flush draw and Birdays flop raise was massive.

            Its so big i wouldn't even call a draw unless it was like OESD/flush, so what were saying is either im a nit and shouldn't fold 2 hearts to that raise or he is a station that then decides im going to bluff shove the river for like 150bb.


            • #7
              fold pre umbup:


              • #8
                Hi all,

                I think we are all missing the obvious value range. The villain is saying this river card helped him, and the obvious way is the club flush. So how reasonable is it that he may have somehow made back door clubs?

                I actually think it's very reasonable. Our villain is somewhat loose passive thus far, and is playing a lot of hands. It's a single raised pot, so I think we can find him involved with many club combos that would continue post flop in this manner... even though birdayy's flop raise is large (and nicely sized given the villain), 44/16 guys don't like to fold when they flop top pair or better, or a draw. So I see a number of club combos the villain can get to the river with in this manner. 7c6c, 8c7c, Ac7c, Ac6c, 7c5c, 6c5c at the bare minimum. Maybe other frisky hands like Ac8c, Ac3c, or slow plays like 8c6c, 99, 77 (even though we'd expect those to raise the flop or turn).

                Also our range should look pretty strong as well, if he's ranging us... we have all the sets and 68s too.

                From a game theory perspective we should generally call the strongest parts of our range, as folding them would be hugely exploitable. But I just don't think a 44/16 AF1.3 guy is exploiting us here. We need to be right 30% of the time roughly... while I don't think we can completely rule out some type of aggressive bluff, I do feel pretty confident such an opponent isn't making a move nearly this often.
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                • #9
                  Lol was it me, or was the player v1 and v6 just opposite earlier? v1 was v6?



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