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2NL FR flopped set, tough river

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  • 2NL FR flopped set, tough river

    I didn't have any info about villain, just joined the table. I didn't bet flop because it was a quite good flop for original raiser to cbet, but he just checked. I probably should have bet turn bigger but what about river?

  • #2
    easy fold I think. His hand looks so much like AK in this spot. Also could have slowplayed 1010/QQ, or rivered set of Jacks. QQ/1010 unlikely as he didn't raise turn. I don't think he's raising 2 pair otr given the size of your bet, and those 2 pair combos shouldn't be raising a limp from mp.

    I think your turn bet sizing could be a little bigger, but it achieves our goal of getting a weaker holding to call, especially a hand like ak which is drawing pretty slim against us. We would expect villain to cbet most s/draws on flop so I see his hand range on turn as some 10x, ak/aj, maybe 88/99.
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    • #3
      Fwiw i prefer to donk out on these kind of boards often but checking is also fine, as played, fold river. It is kinda hard and i do not know if i would do it myself, but looking at this i think sets and AK might play the same way, one pair hands do not raise river there imo.


      • #4
        Multiway, I prefer to donk out on boards like this. I don't really want it getting checked through when there aren't many good turn cards. (Many will reduce your equity, or scare villains into folding to even a small bet).
        As played, river is a bet-fold. Villain nearly always has the nuts when he raises in this spot.
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        • #5
          I actually like the check on the flop. QT, a lot of hands hit this flop, whether it's draws with broadway cards or top pair. I go for the checkraise on these boards.

          I think the hand is played ok, for the most part, although I am folding on the river to that raise. The only hands that I think are making this raise are straights.


          • #6
            Hi Reetik and all,

            I think we should bet this flop. This isn't a great flop for the raiser to c-bet actually, because it's multi-way for one, and it hits both V6s limp-call range and your BB defending range pretty well. I think he may check back this flop a bit more often than you realize.

            So we have a loose-passive fish between us and the raiser (we know this from his actions preflop, read achieved), let's lead out here... he will call with any Q, T, or draw, and if V9 has KQ+ I would think he may raises us, trapping the fish in the middle.

            Turn is fine, bet a tad more maybe but that's it.

            River is critical. We must fold here. You've made a big river bet and the villain puts in a substantial raise. Are you ranging him? Think about his actions through out the hand. Raised pre. Checked back a QT4 rainbow flop. Called a half pot turn bet on a blank. Raised big on a J river. Any hands fit his actions on all streets? There are 2 specifically that do fit imo... JJ and AK. Both beat us. Against most sophisticated players I would call (against someone who could recognize their line looks like AK/JJ if they raise river, and could pull the trigger) as I don't want to be exploited in this spot, but vs. a random 2nl guy he's got AK or JJ basically all the time here.
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