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10NL Zoom QQ going for river value

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  • 10NL Zoom QQ going for river value

    Hand is against an unknown, so no reads, which leads to the title. I think it's all played standardly until the turn, which may be standard. Against an unknown who has called a 3bet OOP, I have to factor in hands like JJ and TT into the equation as they are legitimate candidates for calling OOP here, so I check the turn with the intention of calling a reasonable river bet. JTs is also a possibility. Once he checks it back, I go for small river value, with the intention of folding to a shove. Comments on river bet sizing to get value from worse two pair hands that I just counterfeited? Definitely a fold to any shove against an unknown? Reasons for checking turn legitimate?

  • #2
    Hi bhoy, I like to bet the turn here. I don't think fear of JJ/TT is a good reason to check it back, we are failing to consider his entire range. We can probably remove some combos of AA/KK since he didn't 4-bet us preflop, and while I think JJ/TT are in his range for sure (and maybe 88), we could also be looking at hands like 99, AK-ATs, AK/AQo, maybe AJo, maybe A9s, all these hands deciding to peel the flop to see if the improve. Any hand with a 9 improved to a draw. AQ improved to a double gutter. AJ made top pair. Those hands aren't folding. AK picks up a gutter with the nut overs.. it might fold to a turn bet but that's better than giving it a free card to beat us, as it's probably not paying off river much anyway. In short, we have built a decent pot now and if we consider villains range as a whole, I think he stands to benefit much more from a free card than we do. And he has a number of worse hands that will call again and give us value. The few combos in his range beating us (the sets) he probably check/raises and we can feel comfortable foldling to this turn action. Based on combos in his entire range, he is a favorite to not have a set imo. And while in those fewer circumstances he's got it, a free card doesn't benefit us as much, as all 6 of our outs put 4 to a straight on the board, which could easily limit our river action. As played, when we check back the turn and he responds by checking to us again, not betting the river would be absolutely criminal imo. He would usually bet most better hands himself. He has a number of hands that can beat AK here and will feel a pull to buff catch us, so given your line I think the river bet is perfect. umbup:
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    • #3
      Thanks Dave.

      Got to admit, I was probably a little shot shy due to the last 10NL session I had where every hand seemed to be be a cooler, either against or for me but I ended up on the losing end of them overall (My fault usually, not by being sucked out on).

      Yeah, I worried too much about what hands he had that were beating me on the turn rather than what hands I was ahead of but could call a bet, once he checked the river I was pretty content that I was ahead and could bet.

      Just to clarify, bet/fold on the turn?

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