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Flopped Set, Turned Nutz, How to get paid?

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  • Flopped Set, Turned Nutz, How to get paid?

    I would like some analysis of my bet sizing on the flop/turn/river.
    Oppo folded the river after bet/calling the turn.
    I have to put him on K or flush, good fold by oppo?

  • #2
    I think we can go a little bit bigger on the flop as we figure to have the best hand and villain can limp call with weak Kings and suited connectors that have hit this board. Also, some random nonsense that has hit the board.

    On the turn, I would just bet again, yes, we have the board smashed, but 2NL villains call too much when they shouldnt so I lead out to extract value from that leak. When we check/raise, I hate the click-back, make it bigger.

    On the river, I think leaving room for a fold if he comes over the top is sensible (j/k). I'd shove personally, I don't think he bluffs if we check.

    As for whether it was a good fold by him, it really depends what he had, if he had a flush then it is an excellent fold IMO, especially if he somehow had the nut flush. If he just had a K with no kicker or good kicker then I think it is a very standard fold to the action and he could have folded earlier in the hand unless he had AhKx which seems unlikely.

    Did you have any reads or notes on him?


    • #3
      Hi F1sh, I think we can bet the flop a bit larger here, but that's not as material as our turn action. I feel like it's very important to bet again. The villain has a lot of top pairs in their range, and some flushes. With top pair, he may not bet for us if he's wary of the 3rd heart coming. But he will call a bet, especially if he's got a heart to go with his pair. With flushes, he will probably bet for us, but will often raise if we bet. If we lead .38 and he raises to $1, we've got him, we can reraise all in and he will never fold a flush. Not betting the turn gives him a checks to take a free card and keep the pot small, with hands he would call another bet with. As played, move all in on the river. If he calls $1.24, he'll call the full $1.30. .06c may not seem like much but it's 3 bb's, if we could make an extra 3bb every session imagine what that would do for our win rate. umbup:
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