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10NL AK 3bet Pot, hard flop spot.

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  • 10NL AK 3bet Pot, hard flop spot.

    21/14 and 14% fold to 3bet, so his range is pretty wide.

    The donk lead on the flop confused me, seems like flush draw, straight draw, do you see a fold here ?

    What do you think guys ?

    Poker Stars, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 9 Players
    Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

    BTN: $11.89 (118.9 bb)
    SB: $10.55 (105.5 bb)
    BB: $10 (100 bb)
    UTG+1: $4.97 (49.7 bb)
    UTG+2: $19.03 (190.3 bb)
    MP1: $9.50 (95 bb)
    MP2: $5.41 (54.1 bb)
    Hero (MP3): $10.10 (101 bb)
    CO: $8.87 (88.7 bb)

    Preflop: Hero is MP3 with K A
    2 folds, MP1 raises to $0.30, MP2 calls $0.30, Hero raises to $1.20, 4 folds, MP1 calls $0.90, MP2 folds

    Flop: ($2.85) 9 K T (2 players)
    MP1 bets $4, Hero raises to $8.90 and is all-in, MP1 calls $4.30 and is all-in

    Turn: ($19.45) A (2 players, 2 are all-in)
    River: ($19.45) 2 (2 players, 2 are all-in)

    Results: $19.45 pot ($0.88 rake)
    Final Board: 9 K T A 2
    MP1 showed Q J and won $18.57 ($9.07 net)
    Hero showed K A and won $0.00 (-$9.50 net)

  • #2
    Whats the sample size on fold to 3bet stat?
    What worse hands do you think will call when you shove flop?


    • #3
      over 500hands.

      So call, and leave myself with 4 bucks ? it's shove/fold decision no ?


      • #4
        Originally posted by Justinovskis View Post
        over 500hands.

        So call, and leave myself with 4 bucks ? it's shove/fold decision no ?
        Cant call, because then you are commited, so i think this is pretty tight fold. I dont know if villains would really do this with draws and this huge overbet into preflop 3 bettor is very strong, you are looking at 2 pair at least.


        • #5
          tbh, I'd probably play this exactly like you did. Only problem is the villain's huge OVERDONKbet. It's a polarizing bet. Nuts or nothing. I find that I lean more towards nothing in these situations because this villain has done to strange things... DONKbet and OVERbet. It's definitely something that I need to work on in regards to "getting away". Realistically we shouldn't be stacking off here but I almost always decide that these villain types have something like KQ and I end up staking off vs. them.

          Let's put it this way... I'm been over-shoving OTR with the nuts and I'm getting called by 4th pair vs. some players. I guess they look at it as if I missed a flush or something.

          Having said that. I would play this as you did but I think this is a fold. I would however stack off here with a set of kings, and I think maybe AA... AA is close but is probably also correct to fold.


          • #6
            Hi Justin,

            Well, it's such an unusual play, that I think with 500 hands of data I would be looking at the relevant info if I have any. Does he donk frequently? Or is it rare? What about notecaddy notes... if he's donked and shown down it should be there what his hand strength was.

            In the absence of that info, I actually expect this overbet to be a very strong hand considering the board is super wet, and most strong hands will feel vulnerable on it. I would not rule out *****d combo draws either (normally) except in this case since we hold the Ac we can in fact rule those out. I'm comfortable finding a fold here. If he's doing this with KQ/KJ then I would assume he's making quite a number of spews, but a 21/14 guy doesn't seem to be spewing that hard.
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