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5nl fr set v river donk

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  • 5nl fr set v river donk

    Sorry, this hand was deleted by its owner
    Villain playing 11/9, 1.5 af, 43%cbet (300+ hands). If he has stats on me they would show me as TAG, though also more tight than aggressive. Happy to setmine here against a rather nitty reg. Raising on the flop seemed sensible given the wet board which served as a good disguise for my hand, and might dampen action on later streets if draw cards hit. Turn gave me security against any draws and probably only QJ had overtaken me. In retrospect might I have bet more on turn given he would be calling with almost all his top/overpair (now two pair) hands? At the time I wanted to keep from scaring out the bottom of his range and still leave a reasonable river shove. His river shove was a surprise. Fishy players at these stakes will get too attached to hands and sometimes shove as a last resort bluff in these spots, but this player seems to nitty for that. But then why donkbet here at all? My problem reading this probably stems from the fact that I can't see myself making this play whatever I held. Why not just check and let me bet out? Any ideas on villains range and possible thought process here would be gratefully received.

  • #2
    Hi mytton,

    I would call off here, we're just too strong to fold imo. QQ/JJ are possible but he would 3-bet the flop at least some of the time with those I'd expect on such a wet board. KK is obviously possible, but if he's got these I'm just going to pay the man his money.

    He can feel this is river you might check down with AQ/QT/Q9) and be making sure he gets value with AA/AK. He can have AcKc or AcTc. He can show up with AJ that didn't want to scare you off on the turn but is afraid you won't bet the K now. We should be good often enough here for sure imo.
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    • #3
      Wow, I was a bit surprised at just how much equity you had in this hand, Dave is right on. I only included hands that made two pair or better, and you had 74% equity vs this range.


      Even if you include the KJo and QJo which aren't really in a 9% opening range you still have 57& equity.

      I rounded off the equity to the nearest whole number.
      Last edited by FireMedic815; Thu Mar 27, 2014, 03:39 AM.
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      • #4
        Thanks for the responses, Dave and FireMedic. Great to have some perspective on a situation which in-game left me unnerved and pretty clueless on how to proceed. The situation seems clearer now, and I think I will have a better handle on things the next time a similar situation occurs. For the record I did actually make what felt like a crying call, and ran into pocket Kings.



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