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50nl - Classic sigh/call otr?

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  • 50nl - Classic sigh/call otr?

    Stats Player2 ( $56.62 USD ) - VPIP: 86, PFR: 28, 3B: 14, AF: 5.3, Hands: 102 Player5 ( $55.72 USD ) - VPIP: 26, PFR: 17, 3B: 0, AF: 1.7, Hands: 23 I probably should have raised this pre for value, but he never folds and i'll have to play 77 OOP vs a super wide range which is gonna get very hard very quickly. Player2 is obviously a fish. Turn I think we can't fold with immediate and implied odds given we are drawing to the *****d end of the straight. River... is ewwwwwww. Sigh/call given we are getting 7:1?

  • #2
    River is a pretty easy fold here, neglecting all decisions that led to this point i the hand. I think that 7 to 1 is a deceptive price. It is not a price you will encounter that often, so you are unfamiliar with it. That being said, how often could you possibly be good here? I would guess 5 to 10%. That makes 7 to 1 a pretty clear fold.

    It might be lower than 5 to 10%, had I a gun to my head I would guess 2.5% of the time will we be good here on the river, perhaps less. But even if we build in for my overconfidence in that read, 10% of the time will still lose you a ton of money in the long term if you call here 7 to 1 being 12.5% needed.

    One of the central limitations in our brain's natural state and how we need to think about poker is our inability to deal with small probabilities. Getting accustomed to 50/50 and 33/66 is one thing. Having a good intuition about 12.5/87.5 is another. I don't think this is particularly close to a call on the river.

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    • #3
      Is it not possible that he can be value betting two pair or an underset a small % of the time given he's a less experienced player somewhat dissociated with relative hand strength?

      Given the error margin is 2.5% wouldn't this tip the odds in our favor?

      Also;

      Originally posted by GarethC23 View Post
      But even if we build in for my overconfidence in that read, 10% of the time will still lose you a ton of money in the long term if you call here 7 to 1 being 12.5% needed.
      Then you said...

      Originally posted by GarethC23 View Post
      It is not a price you will encounter that often, so you are unfamiliar with it.
      So if we don't encounter it often how will it accumulate to a ton of money being lost?

      Comment


      • #4
        I think Gareth means that over the sample size of opportunities where this particular bet size is encountered, you will lose a tonne of money, rather than you are going to be losing a tonne of money over an overall sample size. I probably said that pretty dumbly but....

        I'd have made the call, which probably means it shouldn't be made.

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by birdayy View Post
          Is it not possible that he can be value betting two pair or an underset a small % of the time given he's a less experienced player somewhat dissociated with relative hand strength?

          Given the error margin is 2.5% wouldn't this tip the odds in our favor?
          dont find excuses,
          dont lack discipline and fold

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by birdayy View Post
            So if we don't encounter it often how will it accumulate to a ton of money being lost?
            try playing 3M hands umbup:

            Comment


            • #7
              Haha ok.

              Does the fact that he turned up with 45 matter since it is so close?

              (i dont like being results orientated but given it is so close i think it matters a little)

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by birdayy View Post
                Haha ok. Does the fact that he turned up with 45 matter since it is so close? (i dont like being results orientated but given it is so close i think it matters a little)
                Yes, it matters a great deal in this spot. So once we have evidence like that I tend to label villain "BWP" or Bets without Purpose. Then when we have that note and get prices like this in spots like this, we basically can never fold as the folding error is much bigger than the calling error umbup: good hand

                Comment

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