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50nl - 3 Thin Streets vs fish

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  • 50nl - 3 Thin Streets vs fish

    Stats VPIP: 46, PFR: 22, 3B: 9, AF: 4.6, Hands: 152 fCB: 40% fTB: 0% fRB: 0% Not sure if this a 3 streets value hand. Obviously there are some QX in his range that would likely raise on the flop, turn or river with which we can fold to. However, vs his calling range we almost always have the best hand on every street. Is this too ambitious?

  • #2
    Originally posted by birdayy View Post
    Stats VPIP: 46, PFR: 22, 3B: 9, AF: 4.6, Hands: 152 fCB: 40% fTB: 0% fRB: 0% Not sure if this a 3 streets value hand. Obviously there are some QX in his range that would likely raise on the flop, turn or river with which we can fold to. However, vs his calling range we almost always have the best hand on every street. Is this too ambitious?
    I think you river sizing is too large given the range you are targetting here for value. That is the essential problem here. Check fold, check call, and bet fold are all reasonable options on the river. A lot of that will be contingent on villain's, say, river aggression frequency, or villain's flop and turn raising % when facing a continuation bet. Simply because their total AF is high does not contextualize the situation for us very well, when they are in position. Weak players love to slow play, whether it is te right decision or not. As it happens, slowplaying trips and a full house here is the right play for villain. Also, you mention that he has some QX in his flat calling range. Actually of all the one cards A-2 in his button calling range, he is going to have a ton of QX of that slice. Q8s, Q9s, QTo, QJo, KQo, ... he can definintely have a lot of QX. For those reasons, if we decide to value bet the river we can't really press our luck and surpass half pot. So yes and no to your ambitious question. But check-evaluate will often be better here because check-fold is usually going to be the way to go when we face aggression and we always win when river goes check check .

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    • #3
      Originally posted by GarethC23 View Post
      But check-evaluate will often be better here because check-fold is usually going to be the way to go when we face aggression and we always win when river goes check check .
      Would you ever check-raise with the nuts here? Or is this villain type just going to check back too often if he is holding some PP or a weak Qx?

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