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10NL ZOOM, AKo X/Shove OTT TPTK NFD

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  • 10NL ZOOM, AKo X/Shove OTT TPTK NFD

    I played this soooo bad and got rewarded! I think things went wrong when I decided to CC preflop. EP(50): 29/22/2.3 MP(8): 25/13/1.5 PF: I decided to call OOP... blockers to AA and KK... meh OTF: TPTK with NFD, XC OTT: Tanked for a long time. Original thought was to just call... but I decided that I'm free rolling vs AK in case he's bad and get's it in, and I have fold equity vs AA, KK, QQ, JJ if he's a good player??? Also, I'm not getting paid if I hit a spade. So I decided to shove here. Once again I think the major mistake is PF, but as played would you x/shove this turn?
    Last edited by dirt eh; Fri Mar 21, 2014, 12:24 AM.

  • #2
    Just wondering... what are you thinking about doing different PF ? fold or 4bet?
    I do think flatcalling could get you into a tricky spot with a player yet to act but folding looks very nitty and 4bet could get ugly if you are 5bet-shoved on. So calling might not too bad a play.

    I love your shove OTT for sure..

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    • #3
      Originally posted by rkleefstra View Post
      Just wondering... what are you thinking about doing different PF ? fold or 4bet?
      I do think flatcalling could get you into a tricky spot with a player yet to act but folding looks very nitty and 4bet could get ugly if you are 5bet-shoved on. So calling might not too bad a play.

      I love your shove OTT for sure..
      I actually think fold preflop... UTG opens and gets 3bet by MP.

      The reason why I decided to just call was the fact that the 3bet was a PSB (3.5x). Didn't look like a value 3bet. I'd expect AA, KK to make it 0.90 (3x) but this is 10NL so who knows!

      When the villain cbets and tbets the I'm convinced he has a real hand. So OTT I thought calling would have actually been the worst play. I think shoving or folding were my best options.

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      • #4
        Agree that calling turn is no good.

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        • #5
          Hi guys,

          Well I can't disagree more on the turn play. I can't see any reasonable hand the villain has taken this line with that we're beating, nor do I believe we have any tangible fold equity vs that range. No one is folding a set here, c'mon now. We are basically targeting AK/AA to fold which I think is optimistic vs a 10NL random. The fact that he's barrelled again on this board doesn't bode well for us imo. Even if we had a defined read/knowledge that this villain would bet/fold AA 100% of the time here (our best case scenario for check/jamming and almost unrealistically optimistic), it's still super thin:

          AA - 3 combos
          AK - 6 combos
          KK/QQ/JJ - 7 combos

          Our hand has too much equity to fold getting over 3-1 immediate odds, especially since we can be tied sometimes and will chop blank rivers when it goes c/c. But raising all in seems to be clearly -EV to me given the strength of his range and the extremely limited fold equity I perceive. So it seems to me that calling is the clear play here, check-folding the river to a big 3rd barrel when we don't improve (leading when we do).

          Preflop decision I like, I think flatting is better than 4-betting or folding in this situation (and I love the fact you considered folding too, not weighing all the options is a mistake and in many cases folding AK can be ruled out quickly, so a lot of players have gotten in the bad habit of not even considering it... but in this spot considering it has some merit).
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          • #6
            Dave! OTR when we hit, just lead for the villains whole stack?

            I agree it was pretty bad to shove OTT but I can't see the villain calling OTR unless they hold QQ with the Q of spades.. Maybe T of spades. I can't see the villain put the rest of the money in the middle with a set once the 4th spade comes.

            Or is this irrelevant? Just make the 3-1 call to win the pot and not make any more off the hand?

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            • #7
              Shoving is a pretty large bet, I lean more towards about $3.50, but have no solid proof that it gets paid by a high enough frequency to be more profitable than a shove, just gut instinct since most of his calls will fall into the "I'm going to be a hero" or "I can't believe how unlucky I just got" category, and the smaller bet seems more palatable to both.
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              • #8
                Thanks Dave! FWIW... #fischigespieler
                Last edited by dirt eh; Fri Mar 21, 2014, 06:49 PM.

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                • #9
                  Originally posted by TheLangolier View Post
                  I lean more towards about $3.50
                  I approve of this message.
                  Bracelet Winner

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