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AKs UTG v LP

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  • AKs UTG v LP

    Hi I don’t know whether I should have fired all 3 streets here. I have been working on my hand reading and I figured after the flop that the V had 22+, A2o+ or A2s. I have put this all in to poker stove (this is the first time I have used this) and it tells me that on the river against this had rang I’m 62.5% favourite. So my question is should I have fired on all 3 streets? Reads are VP:33 PF:7 3B:0 FCB:20 AG:1 Hands:45 Thanks for the help

  • #2
    I think that going for 3 streets of value with TPTK is fine, with a plan to fold if you get raised on the turn (and don't have odds to chase flush) or river. Equity calculators are very useful tools, but only work well if you have a good feel for hand ranges. You might have 62.5% equity vs Ax/22+ on the river, but how do hands like even get to the river? Villain is more likely to call the flop and turn with hands like and in my opinion. His river calling/raising range is a fair bit tighter than you might think, as even hands like KK (along with all missed draws) are folding to a third barrel. The only worse hands that are likely to call on the river are AQ-A9, and good players will even dump those given your show of strength. (That said, this villain is not a good player, as he has "stationy" stats, so betting to get value from worse aces is fine).
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    • #3
      I also think bet the river is fine with intention to fold if you face re-raise. His stats indicate to continues betting and if he hit a straight, he would re-raise.
      Pokerstove is a great tool but needs to be used wisely. Villain is on button, his range could be huge but unless you have some reads what he is doing on flop/river/turn its very difficult to guest the range.

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      • #4
        Bet bet bet until you get raised sounds like a good plan to me in this hand.

        I do believe your turnbet could be bigger (70-80%pot). Build a pot in case your nutflush hits, get more value from Ax thats sticks around, get more value from k-high flushdraws...

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        • #5
          Against this type of player i would bet more on the turn and put him all in on the river.
          Last edited by MrFlopes; Thu Mar 20, 2014, 04:14 PM.

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          • #6
            Hi Michae,

            I think we can go for 3 streets vs. a loose-passive villain here, he will have enough worse aces to compensate for the times he makes aces up or has a set.

            33/44/55 - 9 combos
            A5/A4/A3/A8 - 24 combos
            AQ-A9/A7/A6 - 48 combos

            Even if we throw in all the A2 combos (he might raise turn with a straight) and the 67s combos, it's still 48-45 in our favor to be ahead, and he will pay us with all the worse hands.
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            • #7
              Thanks for all the feedback. It’s nice to know I’m doing something right. I have been on a down swing lately so second guessing everything I do.

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