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5nl zoom overpair vs river raise

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  • 5nl zoom overpair vs river raise

    17/11 43wtsd river AF 0.67 192 hands Should I give him credit on the river for a monster? Sets don't make much sense as they would generally raise the flop, J9 not likely, 69s 4 combos although they should raise flop or turn too What would you do?

  • #2
    I'd fold. You raised from early position and then proceeded to triple barrel. The villain has to be putting you on an overpair. His river raise is not looking for folds, look how he sized it. He's not going to be raising a hand worse than AA here.

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    • #3
      Hi Pray,

      I too think folding is fine here. Although the sample size isn't big, I think the stats dictate it's a good fold. As an aside re: stats, 192 hands is good but he's nitty preflop, so the sample for how often he got to the river is much smaller. It would be useful to include the # of hands his WTSD is based on for example, to give us some perspective on the validity of these stats. If we had a base sample of 1.9K hands total, this wouldn't be important, as we could assume a large enough river sample for the stats to have solid relevance.

      That being said, The villain profile based on the stats is that he's very selective preflop, and sticky post once he does get involved. He shows down pretty frequently, and would seem to be doing it by calling (or checking) the river the majority of the time since his rAF is so low. So this situation seems to be a perfect spot to exploit this with a bet/fold. He'll pay off a lot of worse made hands, and because of this profile, we don't have to pay off his few slow plays when he does raise.
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