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5nl zoom combo draw bluffed on the river

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  • 5nl zoom combo draw bluffed on the river

    20/18 cb flop 99; cb turn 25; 25wtsd He missed that flop alot, I had some backdoors and 2 overs so I decided to float. The plan failed as he barreled the turn, judging by his sizing he shouldn't be too strong here, would raising him ott be better? I just called because I wasn't sure I want to call a shove(also failed to properly range him, maybe he doesn't have hands that would shove) On the river on what do you put him? AA-QQ looking to bet/fold cheaply? Before folding he said "lol you flopped trips and rivered boat or something"

  • #2
    Perfect hand. OTT I wouldn't raise. You have too much going on for you! Even if the villain checks to you. Just X back IMO.

    OTR: I like the raise, just be careful when doing this vs weak opponents. Weak opponents will call your raise OTR because "they can't believe how unlucky they are" so they'll call to see how unlucky they are.

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    • #3
      In theory its fine but in practice I wouldn't be pulling this kinda thing at 5nl.

      If he bets thinly this play has more merit. Unfortunately most of the time you are just gonna get called by 77 or something stupid like that.

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      • #4
        Hi Pray,

        I'm not really tracking with the judgement that he's weak because of his sizing. He sized his bets consistently on all streets:

        Flop 50%
        Turn 58%
        River 54%

        I think the telling part about hand strength comes from what the stats say about his actions, assuming the sample size is relevant and not small... this villain's modus operandi is to auto-cbet the flop, then give up on the turn if he doesn't have anything (if these stats are over a significant sample, he is a superb float candidate and I love the flop call). So in this hand, he doesn't give up, he fires the 2nd barrel and for an increased sizing. Against such stats I think we can comfortably range him as overpairs and a few nut flush draws, as well as a few boats like 99/55. We've turned enough equity to call again, but I'm not a fan of the river raise as a bluff without some specific player reads that he's capable of folding a hand like QQ to it... most players at 5nl aren't, especially after firing 3 barrels. I would expect we are folding out only missed nut club draws most of the time. His chat comment doesn't rule out AcKc either.

        In general we should be bluffing weakness, not strength, especially so vs. 5nl players. You were feeling like he was weak so that's what you did, which is good, but I'm not tracking with that read for the reasons above. Try constructing a range for the villain and see how many hands on the turn are weak (basically the draws) vs made hands (overpairs, trips, boats).
        Last edited by TheLangolier; Fri Mar 14, 2014, 08:45 PM.
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