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2NL 66 vs Passive SB - River play

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  • 2NL 66 vs Passive SB - River play

    Small blind is playing 16/8 over 25 hands, has never 3bet, or taken an aggressive action post flop. I flop a set, my plan is to bet/bet/bet when I hit my set, and given he is passive I think that is a fairly decent plan for the hand. I'm honestly not sure what he is calling with on the flop. He has taken 4 hands out of the 25 post flop so I assume he can have broadways and some pairs and is generally folding the rest. When he calls, I make the assumption that he isnt laden with premiums. Can have some draws which include big aces, I think this is a decent range, he wouldnt necessarily 3bet those. Anyway, he calls flop, calls turn on an A, possibly improved to a straight here, but when the river comes an A a straight is no good but all Aces apart from A6, AJ and AT made a second best hand. At 2NL, and I would rarely do this at 10NL, I think overbet shoving is a legitimate play here. I do it fairly often, and it has often worked, because players I perceive to have rivered monster hands in an absolute sense have no idea that in a relative sense given my range (Which they will not know is very strong, and usually stronger than their range) that they are dead in the hand. Is this just sensible value at 2NL? Is this just spew, even at 2NL, where you can be called by worse a lot of the time? I think I need to be called relatively rarely for this play to be profitable. If he has nothing, I probably wasnt getting paid anyway, if he has a big second best hand, I get paid pretty often, and if I am behind, well, that kind of sucks but I knew I was taking that risk when I made the play. Thoughts? And I don't think balance etc. comes into this. It's 2NL. I only do this with close to the nuts.

  • #2
    Preflop make it 3 or even 4 x. PostF bet sizing is good but you could go a bit larger... (75% of even 80% of the pot)

    OTR: Don't like this shove... seems silly. Just bet 75-80 percent of pot and fold to the villains X,SHOVE. TT, JJ, AJ and AT have you beat. You're not going to get MAX value from KQ.

    By betting OTR instead of shoving, you're still going to get called by the following hands at 2NL, 5NL and even 10NL: 99-77, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, KTo+, QTo+, JTo, Ax that floated the flop OOP for whatever reason.

    Rarely are you going to get raise by Ax OTR, and if you do then the villain with have a J or T to back up his larger boat.

    Comment


    • #3
      Just a note in regards to the NUTS:
      - AA
      - AJ
      - AT
      - A6
      - JJ
      - TT
      - 66

      You have the 7th nuts.

      Comment


      • #4
        Legitimate points, however, I repeat that it is 2NL.



        That is my graph, before the hand in question in this thread, where I have bet 100% or more of the pot on the river.

        EDIT: Just to add, that while it is certainly possible that he is so passive, he might just be calling with JJ and TT. I think he might be capable of showing some aggression with those hands. I'm only truly concerned about the A6/AJ/AT combinations while JJ and TT are filed in the 'you play weird' category of poker if they show up with that.

        Further EDIT: With regard to pre-flop raise size, 5c has served me well at 2NL, I see absolutely no reason to vary my raise sizes except when I have AA/KK/QQ/JJ and am raising a limper. On those occasions I will make it a bigger sizing because they just call so often after they have limped. Raising to 8c with 66 pre-flop isnt particularly great IMO.
        Last edited by bhoylegend; Mon Mar 10, 2014, 09:52 PM.

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        • #5
          Ok, this graph shows when you bet over 100% OTR and you were called? or just when you bet over 100%?

          Do whatever you feel is correct OTR.

          Personally I would only be OVER SHOVING the river here with AA, AJ, maybe AT. I don't think shoving the 7th nuts will be +EV in the long run.

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by dirt eh View Post
            I don't think shoving the 7th nuts will be +EV in the long run.
            Higher than 2NL, I tend to agree.

            And the stakes do make a different to the likelyhood of being called with a worse hand.

            The mathematics of how many times you need to be called by a worse/better hand never change but you will get more bad calls at 2NL.

            Comment


            • #7
              Preflop sizing is fine.

              Not sure about river because I don't know the 2nl player pool very well.

              It could be fine at 2nl, and i know you get sick of me saying this, but it's easy to adjust to because you'll turn up with value at higher stakes.

              I thought you were playing 10nl?

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by birdayy View Post
                It could be fine at 2nl, and i know you get sick of me saying this, but it's easy to adjust to because you'll turn up with value at higher stakes. I thought you were playing 10nl?
                Right, which is why I prefaced my comments by saying this isnt a line I would take too often at 10NL, or particularly at all. 2NL players will not adjust, well, 99.99% of them won't and I have a good handle on who the other 00.01% are. I was playing 10NL, I cashed out, I am taking some time off poker altogether and playing 2NL.umbup:

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by birdayy View Post
                  Preflop sizing is fine.

                  Not sure about river because I don't know the 2nl player pool very well.

                  It could be fine at 2nl, and i know you get sick of me saying this, but it's easy to adjust to because you'll turn up with value at higher stakes.

                  I thought you were playing 10nl?
                  no, i thought u would say 'fold pre '

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    overbetting the probable best hand when a L/P has shown interest can't really be a mistake/spew, like you said he wasnt calling you with the weaker parts of the range you assigned him anyway so just going for max value i think was good. Oh and your graph for this kind of scenario is showing good profit. Euan

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Up to the river all actions are good, but I feel like the spot and the villain are not optimal for an overbet. Villain can herocall with hands like KQ, but it's kind of tough for him to show up with Ax that didnt boat up after calling flop. If he's very tight and doesnt 3bet pre he might sometimes have AQ/AK here so it might work. Overall I think you should just use a standard bet here to look for value from hands like KJ/QJ as well.
                      Live Trainer



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                      • #12
                        Originally posted by euan12345 View Post
                        overbetting the probable best hand when a L/P has shown interest can't really be a mistake/spew, like you said he wasnt calling you with the weaker parts of the range you assigned him anyway so just going for max value i think was good. Oh and your graph for this kind of scenario is showing good profit. Euan
                        Thanks Euan, the graph does show good profit, its still relatively rare that I do this kind of thing but it has been profitable to date.

                        Originally posted by PSO-xflixx View Post
                        Up to the river all actions are good, but I feel like the spot and the villain are not optimal for an overbet. Villain can herocall with hands like KQ, but it's kind of tough for him to show up with Ax that didnt boat up after calling flop. If he's very tight and doesnt 3bet pre he might sometimes have AQ/AK here so it might work. Overall I think you should just use a standard bet here to look for value from hands like KJ/QJ as well.
                        Thanks Felix.

                        This was probably one of the more marginal spots I have taken this line on at 2NL but I find it a really useful tool in certain situations. I generally try to do it in spots where I river a boat which also brings a flush that I think villain has been chasing, and wont fold, or other similar situations. As this was one of the more marginal spots thought it was a good idea to ask the questions and apply it to some of the situations I find myself in.

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