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10NL ZOOM 6-max, Q4 on A4439 river decision

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  • 10NL ZOOM 6-max, Q4 on A4439 river decision

    A ton of sticky hands today... Villain is unknown. Q4s facing turn donkbet and river 3 x PSB. Call or shove for value?

  • #2
    had to play as way ahead / way behind.

    Villains float OTT with a small bet could mean a drawing hand or a monster (e.g. set, or boat). Call seems ok for pot control. His overbet on the river is quite strong, possibly a monster (e.g. nuts) or a bluff. Your read would matter a lot here if you are to call. I think shoving is not a good idea.

    I might personally play a reraise / fold on the turn if I get 3bet. Decision on the river would again depend on reads and betsize of villain.

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    • #3
      Yuk!

      When they call flop bet then I think they will have Ax or PP. When they lead turn, I think that range has not changed. Raising turn I think will get PPs to fold and we get called by Ax some amount of the time. I think I prefer calling turn because we're not going to get too many calls anyways. Like worse 4x are there but less likely since there's only one remaining 4 in the deck.

      Their river overbet sucks, like really sucks!
      What Ax hands bet the river like that? A9, A4
      What PPs bet the river like that? 33, 99
      What 4x hands bet the river like that? possibly all of them

      By the way, I think there are no bluffs with that river sizing. So I think I'm calling at best and here's why:
      I don't assume villain will call with all 4x hands, so I think what makes sense are hands like: A4, 64, 54, 43, 74s so their range will constitute of 40% full house, 30% two pair, 30% 3 of a kind but I think by raising river we will end up getting called by the full houses only.

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