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River Flush : Did I Overplay My Hand?

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  • River Flush : Did I Overplay My Hand?

    SB is 40/20, only 10 hands. Maybe just a call on river as not nut flush...

  • #2
    Personally, I would have clicked it $29.00 not $58.00


    • #3
      Hi Carl,

      I think this is just a call on the river tbh, for a couple reasons.

      First, V2's value range is incredibly strong in this spot. Let's take a non-monster hand like AdJd, and put ourselves in V2's shoes. He leads the turn into 3 opponents and gets called by 2 of them. At this point with our AdJd we would suspect at least 1 of the 2 callers has a draw, and certainly there are drawing hands in both the callers ranges. Then more bad news, the river completes a ton of those possible draws. Is leading into both players for a pot sized bet on this river card what we would do with AJ? He's probably not either.

      Second, what are we targeting with this huge raise? We are trying to get called by worse, but is that a realistic goal in this scenario? Our line is pretty face up as a flush, so what is going to call us? Think about the flush combos we beat that can call, what are they? The best Q high flush he can have is Q8s, probably not calling pre with that. Suited connector it's 56s, again maybe, maybe not but it's only 1 combo and will he call this big a raise in a spot where our line screams flush? It's optimistic.

      So in light of the facts that

      -our range to raise the river big is pretty clear
      -villain's action looks super strong and he can't really have many, if any, non-nut flush combos based on the available cards
      -Getting a raise called by worse is optimistic at best

      I think calling (and maybe getting an overcall from V6 if he made a straight or 2 pair and isn't ranging properly) is our best option.
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