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10NL ZOOM - AA facing a XR OTT

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  • 10NL ZOOM - AA facing a XR OTT

    On the turn, shove or fold? Villain(524): 19/14/3.1 Fold to 3b: 50 (14 samples) Tot steal: 36 HM2 autorate: ABC Player

  • #2
    What is his fold to 3b stat, and how wide does he open the CO? I'm folding the turn, I expect if he is check-raising as a bluff to put you off unpaired hands he will do this on the flop, on the turn he looks so strong. Probably has something like 9Ts, 89s, 44, MAYBE some slowplayed aces but I believe AA will check-call here to bluff-catch expecting you to be very wide on the button, and you hold 2 aces so this is very unlikely. Best you can hope for is TT-KK. Check-raising with TT-KK OTT is pretty bad here as you are folding villain's bluffs and isolating yourself against his hands that beat yours.
    Last edited by pockettones; Sat Mar 01, 2014, 02:31 AM.

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    • #3
      Originally posted by pockettones View Post
      What is his fold to 3b stat, and how wide does he open the CO?
      FOLD TO 3BET: 50 (on 14 samples)
      PFR BY POSITION
      EP: 7
      MP: 16
      CO: 26
      BTN: 30
      SB: 21
      Last edited by dirt eh; Sat Mar 01, 2014, 02:45 AM.

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      • #4
        This guy is playing pretty tight and like your HM2 says, pretty ABC.

        This all adds up to this being a classic Beluga spot and a fold.

        This villain's rarely going to take this line with TT-QQ, he'll either check/call twice or three times or check/raise flop to stop you realising your equity with overcards.

        Villain could have 44 or stuff like A9s, J9s, T9s, maybe even K9 or Q9 although I think these are less likely.

        Especially with the size he's made his raise, he's now committing himself to the hand, so calling isn't even less of an attractive option than it normally would be.

        I know it feels awful to fold AA on such a dry board, but against this villain type I think it's your best option.

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